Can the DAX hit a new all-time high?

After breaking the 10,800 resistance level, the DAX saw a strong move upwards since the beginning of the year. 


The target is clearly set out – a new all-time high. And the highest level of 12,390 points marked up to now could be reached as early as in April. Historically speaking, the months March and April were highly positive. As ‚Graph 1‘ shows, in the course of the last 16 years Germany’s bluechip index has been gaining 4% in value on average during these two months. Throughout the observation period, only five of these sixteen years showed a negative performance. In addition, the DAX managed to break dynamically through the upper limit of the upward trend channel seen since January on the 1-hour chart. Thereafter, the DAX climbed up to 12,380 points – just about 10 points away from the all-time high. At present, however, the DAX seems overbought. With a price performance of just 4,1% since the beginning of March it is performing just slightly above the average since the turn of  the century. This could be followed initially by a correction phase down to 12,100 points before market participants start using these levels as entry prices to reach the interim target all-time high and before resuming an upward trend.

Historical DAX performance March/April since 2000
Graph 1: Historical DAX performance March/April since 2000

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