US elections - Timeline and what to watch for

Polling Stations opened this morning at 6 am Swiss time. 


The outcome of the election on markets can be summed up in a few words as follows:

Victory Clinton: security and stability for the market, unwinding of hedges, which should lead to a "risk-on" positioning. Both the stock markets and the USD should benefit from this. USDCHF and USDJPY have most to win, but are also the most risky in case Trump wins.

Victory Trump: uncertainty in the market to what extent Trump can implement his promises, which should lead to a "risk-off" positioning. The volatility should rise and both the stock markets and the USD should experience short-term pressure. CHF, JPY and Gold would rise. A FED interest hike in December would seriously be questioned.

The Timeline on Election Day (Swiss time)

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 (CET)

06:00: The first ballot opened

12:00: Most of the ballots have opened

22:00: The first survey results could be published

23:00: The first counting results of the individual states are available

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

05: 00/06: 00 probably the earliest time when the elector could be announced. Watch carefully the important swing states of Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania at which polls close between 1 and 2 am GVA-time. A Clinton victory in 2 out of these 3 states would significantly boost here chances to win.

Find out more on US elections

The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.