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Safe havens could benefit from Greek exit

Global market risk has been rife since Greece elected Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party.

Tsipras
Source: Bloomberg

It wasn’t long before Greece took a hard-line approach to European leaders as the country looked to amend and adjust its current bailout. This hard-line approach has seen negotiations between Greece and the rest of the union drag on with heightened headline risk for global markets. This week kicked off with Greece walking away from negotiations, resulting in some mild risk aversion and downside positioning in the euro. However, there have since been contrasting headlines suggesting Greece will submit an application to extend the loan agreement but it remains unclear if any changes to the agreement will be made. The ECB is meant to review the emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks as they face accelerating deposit outflows. Some might argue this is an even bigger and more immediate risk to global markets. Given there isn’t much time until the Friday deadline, the fact Greece is still looking to submit something is somewhat encouraging. In terms of the next step now, another meeting could be held as early as Friday if Greece submits a request to extend the current programme. It seems all other options are now off the table for Greece and this will certainly put traders on high alert of an escalation of the situation. Failure to reach an agreement by Friday will heighten Greek exit fears and put the risk aversion trade in full swing. Should this happen, traders are likely to be eyeing shorts in the euro and European equities. Safe haven demand will also emerge and this would benefit the yen, gold, treasuries and bunds. 

 

 

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