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Week Ahead
Week commencing 10 November 2025
Explore why US equities face their steepest weekly decline since April, the ASX 200 struggles after the RBA decision, and UK GDP forecasts point to slower growth.
US equity markets and ASX 200 under pressure
United States (US) equity markets are set for their worst weekly performance since early April, driven by concerns over stretched technology valuations, the ongoing government shutdown, and a private-sector jobs report signalling labour market cooling - partly linked to artificial intelligence (AI) integration.
The ASX 200 is on track for a second consecutive week of losses, weighed down by Wall Street's decline and after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates steady at 3.60%, dashing hopes of cuts before year-end.
The week that was: highlights
- In the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for October dipped to 48.7 from 49.1 prior
- The ADP report showed private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, following an upwardly revised 29,000 decline in September
- The ISM services PMI climbed to 52.4 in October from 50.0 in September, marking the fastest expansion in the services sector since February
- The Challenger, Gray & Christmas layoffs report showed a 183% month-on-month (MoM) surge in announced layoffs to 153,074 – the worst October in 22 years and a 175% YoY rise
- In China (CN), the RatingDog manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.6 in October from 51.2 prior
- In the United Kingdom (UK), the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold at 4.00%
- In Australia (AU), the RBA kept rates on hold at 3.60%, as widely expected
- Staying in Australia, building approvals surged by 12% in September
- In New Zealand (NZ), the unemployment rate in Q3 rose to 5.3% from 5.2% prior
- Crude oil fell 2.07% to $59.72
- Gold fell 0.45% to $3984
- Bitcoin fell 8.29% to $101,384
- Wall Street’s gauge of fear, the volatility index (VIX), rose to 19.49 from 17.43 the previous week.
Key dates for the week ahead
Australia & New Zealand
- AU Westpac consumer confidence: Tuesday 11 November at 10.30am AEDT
- AU NAB business confidence: Tuesday 11 November at 11.30am AEDT
- AU Housing finance: Wednesday 12 November at 11.30am AEDT
- AU Employment: Wednesday 13 November at 11.30am AEDT
China & Japan
- CN house price index: Friday 14 November at 12.30pm AEDT
- CN industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment: Friday 14 November at 1.00pm AEDT
United States
No major data expected due to government shutdown
Europe & United Kingdom
- UK unemployment: Thursday 11 November at 6.00pm AEDT
- UK gross domestic product (GDP) third quarter (Q3): Thursday 13 November at 6.00pm AEDT
Key events for the week ahead
AU: Employment
Date: Wednesday 13 November at 11.30am AEDT
For September, employment in Australia rose by 14,900 jobs, falling short of the 20,000 gain the market expected. The unemployment rate surged to 4.5% from a revised higher 4.3%, as the participation rate increased from 66.9% to 67%.
This marked the highest jobless rate since November 2021, reinforcing evidence of a softening labour market – a trend we expect to persist into 2026 and one we think will compel further RBA easing. As seen in the US, when the labour market cracks, sticky inflation – the RBA’s current priority – quickly fades into the background.
October preview:
- Consensus expects +20,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to ease to 4.4%
- In-line data should keep the RBA on hold, but a 4.5% or 4.6% print would sharply raise odds of a 25bp cut in coming months.
The Australian interest rate market is currently pricing in 4 basis points (bp) of easing for the RBA’s December meeting and about 20 bp of cuts by May 2026.
AU unemployment rate chart
UK: GDP Q3
Date: Thursday 13 November at 6.00pm AEDT
For the second quarter (Q2), UK GDP grew a better-than-expected 0.3%, down from the first quarter's (Q1) 0.7%, which was flattered by tariff-frontloading of business activity to beat the introduction of US tariffs.
At this week’s BoE meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5–4 to hold the Bank Rate at 4%, resisting calls for a 25 bp cut to 3.75%. It highlighted ‘subdued economic growth and building slack in the labour market’ as disinflationary forces, with ‘weak growth in consumption and employment’ signalling rising spare capacity.
The preliminary expectation for Q3 GDP is for it to ease to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), another step-down from the first half's (H1) tariff-boosted pace. Softer inflation, rising unemployment and a weaker growth profile has resulted in 15 bp of rate cuts being priced in for the BoE’s December interest rate meeting.
UK GDP growth rate chart
US Q3 earnings season
US Q3 earnings season continues next week with reports scheduled from companies including CoreWeave, Cisco, Disney and Quantum Computing.
Important to know
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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