Oil prices rise as OPEC+ pauses output; ASX energy stocks outlook mixed 

Output pause

Crude oil prices have climbed back above US$65 a barrel in recent days, marking the longest streak of gains since September. The rally in Brent crude oil futures came after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced it will pause output increases from January to March 2026.

The pause reflects what OPEC+ calls a typical seasonal slowdown and comes as the market contends with the risk of growing oversupply.

Fears of a global glut have sent Brent prices down around 10% over the past three months. Goldman Sachs head of oil research Dan Struyven told Bloomberg he anticipates global supply will continue growing and could see oil prices drop by another US$10 a barrel over the next 12 months.

WTI versus Brent oil futures

Meanwhile, tighter United States (US) sanctions on key producer Russia have raised uncertainty over future supply from one of the world’s major exporters.

Woodside Energy (ASX:WPL)

Shares in Woodside Energy are up around 5% over the past 12 months, outperforming a fairly flat performance from the overall ASX 200 Energy index (XEJ).

Woodside Energy daily candlestick chart

Shares appear to be in a medium-term rally confirmed by multiple indicators, with the 5-day moving average (MA) above both the 20-day and 50-day MA.

Woodside Energy historical trends and price targets

Citi analysts are 'neutral' on Woodside shares, with a $25.50 price target, while Morgans recently upgraded the company to a 'buy' from accumulate with a $30.50 target, citing improving operations, positive oil price momentum and a stronger macro backdrop.

The average broker recommendation on the stock is a 'buy', according to Refinitiv, with a $26.27 price target, suggesting further upside of almost 5%.

Woodside Energy buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

Santos (ASX:STO)

Conversely, Santos shares are down close to 7% over the past 12 months.

Santos daily candlestick chart

ASX Tradewatch data show shares are in a long-term bearish trend, most notably with the 200-day MA falling, showing demand for the stock is low. Coupled with the fact Santos has been trending lower, investors appear to see little opportunity for owning Santos at this time.

Santos historical trends and price targets

But brokers are fairly upbeat on the stock, with the average target price of $7.56 suggesting it can run a further near 19%, according to Refinitiv data.

Santos buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

Energy evolution

Australia’s renewable energy sector is surging, driven by the government’s ambitious goal to reach 82% renewable energy by 2030.

Analysts believe stocks like Origin Energy and AGL Energy can offer investors a front-row seat to the clean energy boom reshaping the nation’s economy.

Origin Energy (ASX:ORG)

Origin Energy shares have risen an impressive 26% over the past 12 months.

Origin Energy daily candlestick chart

While the stock’s 200-day MA continues to trend higher, reflecting sustained long-term investor interest, ASX Tradewatch data suggest caution, with the 20-day MA slipping, signalling a loss of short-term momentum.

Origin Energy historical trends and price targets

Analysts suggest holding the stock at current levels, believing it’s fairly priced. Citi has a 'buy' recommendation and $13 price target.

Origin Energy buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

AGL Energy (ASX:AGL)

Shares in AGL Energy are down more than 14% over the past 12 months.

AGL Energy daily candlestick chart

Technical data show shares are in a short-term rally within a broader downtrend. The downward-sloping 200-day MA points to weak longer-term demand, though recent price action suggests renewed buying interest.

AGL Energy historical trends and price targets

An average target price of $11.06, as surveyed by Refinitiv, suggests the stock could rise a further 21% from current levels.

UBS has a buy recommendation on the stock with a $10.70 price target, acknowledging near-term earnings pressure while anticipating stronger generation price premiums to offset this, underpinning medium-term valuation upside. Analysts at Morningstar are also upbeat.

AGL Energy buy/sell indicators and analyst projections