The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
The Germany 30 is trading at 9914, down 0.1% on the session. I expect trading volumes and market volatility will be low in the run up to the ECB decision.
Mario Draghi has big expectations to meet and traders are already pricing in some form of monetary easing; the most likely course of action would be to cut interest rates by 0.15% to 0.1%. There has been so much anticipation that there is a possibility eurozone indicies will remain unchanged even if there is a small interest rate cut.
In my view, it would have to be an aggressive easing of monetary policy, like a swing to a negative base rate, to drive the Germany 30 to the 10,000 level. I suspect the ECB will get the ball rolling with a small interest rate cut with more to follow in the next few months.
If no action is taken by the ECB the Germany 30 could give up a lot of its recent gains and head towards 9800.