Potential AUD/NZD trade

Given there has been a pick-up in the interest to trade AUD/NZD I thought I’d look at the current set-up.

Source: Bloomberg

Personally I would deploy a momentum based strategy on this pair and would wait for a daily close (08:00 AEST or the NY close) above the June 4 high (and 50% retracement of the October to January sell-off) of 1.1035. This invariably means taking a worse price, but I am hoping to see a continuation of this move. A move above here would also coincide with a bullish crossover on the stochastic indicator and with the MACD firmly above the zero line, it suggests pullbacks will be supported within a bullish trend anyhow.

On the weekly chart we would likely see a move above zero on the MACD for the first time since mid-2012.

I would place a potential stop under the recent consolidation low of 1.0925 (say 1.0905) and look to take potential profits at 1.1200.

This is a medium-term strategy.

AUD/NZD chart
IG charts

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