FX snapshot – Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/JPY

The dollar is at a crucial point in time, while GBP/USD finally breaks through its resistance zone.

GBP/EUR
Source: Bloomberg

Dollar Index at crucial moment
The Dollar Index has pulled back majorly overnight to an absolutely crucial place. We are watching for continued higher highs and higher lows, yet with the current candle having come within 2 points of the previous low of 96.92, another move lower could really change the picture.

Thus I remain bullish unless we do see that move lower that crosses the 96.92 threshold. Should that occur, I would hold off to see if we create a new lower high and only then would I become bearish for the short-term.

This chart will be impacted by the FOMC later, so be aware of fundamentals today which could change the look and feel of this chart significantly. The next resistance in view is 97.32.

Dollar Basket

GBP/USD breaking into new bullish phase
Yesterday saw GBP/USD break to a new one-and-a-half month high, with the pair finally managing to break and, importantly, close above the 15,690 mark, it looks like we are moving into a more bullish period.

Interestingly, the retracement has found support on the bottom end of my resistance zone and now appears to be moving into the next leg higher. For this reason, I expect a move towards the $1.574 level (61.8% Fibonacci expansion) and $1.5799 (100% expansion). 

GBP/USD

AUD/USD runs into moving average resistance
AUD/USD has broken higher this morning, yet any upside seems likely to be shortlived, given the cluster of moving averages (50-/100-/200-) and trendline resistance.

The peaks have clearly been falling over the last week and this morning’s move below $0.7323 has now provided another bearish indicator. I expect us to see the sellers return to the fore between this moving average cluster and the descending trendline (currently $0.7372).

AUD/USD

GBP/JPY seemingly heading back to notable resistance level
GBP/JPY has been ranging between ¥193.48 and ¥195.26 for the last week and despite marginally pulling back this morning, it looks like we could see yet another move back to ¥195.26. Should that occur, the overnight retracement would be the shallowest pullback by far over this past week, which points towards a possible break higher.

Nevertheless, given previous price action, I would only expect major bullish price action once I see a break higher and thus I would ordinarily look for another move lower from ¥195.26.

Given my bullish breakout view on GBP/USD though, I do think we could see a break higher for GBP/JPY, which would subsequently have ¥195.85 to challenge. Should price break above there, it would lead us to a seven-year high.

I am bullish overall for this pair over the medium- and long-term, but it is a case of waiting for the breakout to then deal with it.  

GBP/JPY

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