The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
AUD/USD hit $0.7711 yesterday and is just starting to slump again, trading at $0.7640. While markets got the timing of the cut wrong, it is clear we still have an easing bias and a rate cut is still likely on the way.
Reasons for not cutting have been centred on macroprudential concerns on housing and an argument around how much of a difference further cuts will make. Yesterday’s strong retail sales reading was also overlooked to an extent as they showed strong consumer demand, particularly in household goods and food.
This is also consistent with strong housing demand as people tend to stock up on electrical goods when they move into a new property or renovate. One of the main reasons the pair gave up some gains was also due to a reinvigorated greenback.
However, the pair seems to be finding some buyers off the lows and, from a price action perspective, perhaps the biggest development was a break of the rejection of the 38.2% retracement at $0.7690. Until the pair can close above this level, I feel sellers will continue to look for shorting opportunities.