Week Ahead: 13 July 2026

 US stocks reach record highs as ASX 200 lags

United States (US) equity markets are set to finish the week mostly higher, underpinned by renewed buying interest in technology stocks and a resilient batch of economic data. Gains extended to a fresh record high for the Dow Jones as traders largely looked through the latest flare-up in the Middle East, pricing in the view that any escalation will remain contained and relatively short-lived.

Closer to home, the ASX 200 is set to finish the week modestly lower, but not far from the 8800 level where it has traded for much of the past month. The index’s decline has been driven primarily by heavy selling in the materials sector, although a meaningful portion of that capital appears to be rotating into financials.

The week so far - highlights 

• The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for June moderated to 54.0, matching the consensus forecast and easing from the previous 54.5 reading

• Staying in the US, the trade deficit narrowed to -$77.6 billion in May, a better-than-expected result compared with the -$78.5 billion consensus forecast

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes underscored lingering hawkishness within the Federal Reserve (Fed), revealing that while the vote to hold rates was unanimous, some policymakers saw a valid case for a rate hike at the June meeting

• Initial jobless claims dipped 2000 to 215,000 for the week ending 4 July 

• China’s headline inflation rate eased to 1.0% year-on-year (YoY) in June, falling short of the 1.1% consensus forecast, while the producer price index (PPI) met expectations at 4.1% YoY, rising from 3.9% previously

• In Japan, household spending for May surprised significantly to the upside, falling just 0.4% YoY against a consensus forecast for a 2.5% decline

• The UK S&P Global Construction PMI fell to 38.4 in June, missing the 40.0 consensus forecast and highlighting continued contraction in the sector despite a marginal improvement from the previous 38.2 reading

• Eurozone retail sales for May grew by 0.2% month-on-month (MoM), failing to meet the consensus forecast of a 0.3% increase 

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its official interest rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 2.5%, meeting market consensus as the central bank maintains its restrictive policy stance

• New Zealand’s manufacturing sector showed renewed resilience as the Business NZ PMI surged to 59.7 in June, up sharply from the previous 51.3 reading

• WTI crude oil is trading 4.75% higher this week at $71.95

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading flat this week at 100.92 

• Bitcoin is trading flat this week at $63,259

• Gold is trading 1.30% lower this week at $4121

• Wall Street’s gauge of fear, the volatility index (VIX), has fallen to 15.85 this week from 16.14 the previous week.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

• AU – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: Tuesday, 14 July at 10.30am AEST

• AU – NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 14 July at 11.30am AEST 

China & Japan

• CN – Balance of Trade: Tuesday, 14 July at 1.00pm AEST

• CN – House Price Index YoY: Wednesday, 15 July at 11.30am AEST

• CN – Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate YoY/quarter-on-quarter (QoQ): Wednesday, 15 July at 12.00pm AEST

• CN – Industrial Production YoY: Wednesday, 15 July at 12.00pm AEST

• CN – Retail Sales YoY: Wednesday, 15 July at 12.00pm AEST

• CN – Fixed Asset Investment year-to-date YoY: Wednesday, 15 July at 12.00pm AEST

United States

• US – Inflation Rate (consumer price index (CPI)) MoM/YoY: Tuesday, 14 July at 10.30pm AEST

• US – Fed Chair Warsh testimony: Wednesday, 15 July at 12.00am AEST

• US – PPI MoM: Wednesday, 15 July at 10.30pm AEST

• US – Retail Sales MoM: Thursday, 16 July at 10.30pm AEST

• US – Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, 16 July at 10.30pm AEST

• US – Industrial Production MoM: Friday, 17 July at 11.15pm AEST

• US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): Saturday, 18 July at 12.00am AEST

Europe & United Kingdom

UK – GDP MoM/three-month average: Thursday, 16 July at 4.00pm AEST

Key events for the week ahead

AU: Westpac Consumer Confidence Index

Date: Tuesday, 14 July at 10.30am AESTRBNZ Interest Rate Decision: Wednesday, July 08 at 12.00 PM

For June, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 2.9% to 80.6 from 83.0 in May, remaining among the weakest readings in the survey’s nearly 50-year history. Pessimists continued to outnumber optimists by a wide margin, with cost-of-living pressures remaining the dominant concern for households despite some temporary relief from lower fuel excise.

Despite this week’s escalation in the Middle East, expectations are for a moderate rebound to around 83, supported by the decline in headline inflation towards 4%, a resilient jobs report and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) electing to keep rates on hold at its meeting last month.

The Australian interest rate market is set to end the week pricing in approximately 6 bp of tightening for the RBA’s August meeting, with a cumulative 14 bp of hikes priced in for the remainder of 2026.

US : Inflation Rate (CPI) MoM/YoY

Date: Tuesday, 14 July at 10.30pm AEST

The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 4.2% in May 2026, marking its highest level since April 2023 and up from 3.8% in April, in line with market expectations. This represented the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline inflation, driven largely by the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran. Gasoline prices soared 40.5% over the year while fuel oil rose 58.9%. Shelter inflation also accelerated to 3.4% from 3.3%, and food prices increased 3.1% from 2.3%.

For June, the consensus is for headline inflation to ease modestly to 3.9% YoY, while core inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.9%. Both readings would remain well above the Fed’s 2% target and highlight the persistent challenge facing policymakers as they navigate the interplay between geopolitical risks and domestic price pressures. This will remain a key test for Chair Kevin Warsh as he looks to restore the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility, a theme that came through clearly in the June FOMC meeting.

A hotter-than-expected print would likely bolster expectations of a Fed rate hike before year-end, while an in-line or softer outcome would lend support to Warsh’s comments last week that inflation pressures are easing.

US core CPI chart

CN: GDP Growth Rate YoY/QoQ

Date: Wednesday, July 15 at 12.00 PM 

In the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, China’s economy grew 5.0% YoY, above consensus expectations. Growth was supported by a rebound in industrial production and exports, although domestic demand remained relatively soft.

For the second quarter (Q2), the consensus is for growth to moderate to 4.5% YoY, with the quarterly pace expected to slow to around 1.0% from 1.3% in Q1. A result in line with or below expectations would likely see the July Politburo meeting signal an acceleration in fiscal rollout from Q3, with a focus on strategic infrastructure under the ‘Six Networks’ initiative.

China annual GDP chart

US: Q2 Earnings Season

The US Q2 2026 earnings season kicks into gear next week, led by a heavy slate of financial heavyweights and early technology bellwethers.

The action begins with banking titans JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday, before Morgan Stanley and asset manager BlackRock report on Wednesday.

Sentiment in the AI and semiconductor space will face an early test with updates from lithography leader ASML on Wednesday and global chip powerhouse TSMC on Thursday, while the technology narrative continues with streaming giant Netflix on Thursday.