Pullback in oil as Suez woes lighten
Latest from the CoT report shows traders reducing majority buy bias in gold, on hold in extreme long territory for oil.
Gold technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Spot Gold movement has been a non-story, opting to remain within its previous weekly levels last week, as well as its previous daily ones, failing to offer a play in the process.
The overview is still showing a touch more negative short-term bias even though most of its technical boxes in both time frames are neutral - a negative DMI cross occurring on the daily.
It has become a common theme to get a technical triangle only for a break to follow thereafter, and that of course would mean contrarian breakouts might eventually have their day. Until then, reversals on narrowed ranges have outperformed, making it dangerous once a trend move occurs that'll get a few traders who are getting accustomed to more controlled levels stuck with positions opposite.
Learn more about gold trading.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Gold
CoT speculators continue to unwind their heavy long bias, down to 75% as an increase in shorts by 12,666 lots outdoes a 6,537 increase in longs (silver CoT 64%, platinum 79%, palladium 65%).
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil - US Crude technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Short-term volatile moves for WTI Crude (SGD1 Contract) that went beyond key daily levels late last week and in line with its short-term technical overview that's consolidation - volatile.
This is where short-term levels are at risk of breaking with ease but where prices eventually move back to an average level, breakout opportunities only enjoying limited profit-taking while simultaneously reversal strategies get tested on the initial move opposite.
The technical overview is far more positive on the weekly, but that doesn't mean it isn't open to move beyond key support levels as seen last week.
In oil data, Baker Hughes oil rig count rose to 417 from 411 prior, while in the news Suez struggles are expected to be cleared, the signing of a China-Iran agreement that is expected to result in more investment from the former in aiding the latter's exports, and a refinery fire.
We've got an OPEC+ technical meeting later this week, where the fundamental event could easily break levels.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil - US Crude
Oil - US Crude chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.
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