Gold recovers off its morning lows, oil oscillates

CoT speculators continue to hold extreme buy bias in both, retail sentiment on the verge of shifting in oil.

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

With the US dollar generally strengthening in the FX market, equities in retreat on Friday, and yields finishing the week a little lower, the retreat in gold prices has taken it beneath all its main Daily moving averages (crossing and closing beneath the 200-day MA on the Friday). On the Weekly, it’s below all its main short-term MA's but above its main long-term ones, its price getting close to its 50-week moving average (blue solid line) as seen on the chart. Its price remained within last week's Weekly levels, making a move beneath its Daily 1st Support on Friday. Silver and platinum suffered more.

IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Gold

And in sentiment, retail bias is unchanged since the start of last week at an extreme long 87%, CoT speculators reducing both long and short bias – by 36,729 lots and 3,638 lots respectively – and taking extreme buy bias a notch lower to 82%. (Silver CoT long bias is at 72%, platinum at 80%, and palladium at 69%).

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Oil may have started off the week strong, but finished little changed from where it started, opting to remain within last week's Weekly levels and testing breakout strategies late last week on the Daily on a lack of follow through beyond its key short-term levels. US data generally disappointed, and in equities the energy sector was in retreat led by Exxon Mobil on a regulatory probe. As for oil data, Baker Hughes oil rig count showed another consecutive increase from 275 to 287, no surprise given the higher oil prices which if it can hold, would entice more into restarting relatively lower cost producing rigs and at least partially hedging at these levels.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil WTI

The pullback off the highs meant there were some retail shorts capable of unwinding, majority sell bias dropping from 61% to just 52%, while for CoT speculators they continue to maintain extreme long sentiment, holding at 81%.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.

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Gold & Silver – webinar on March 9

Join our expert as he takes you through:

  • Mapping gold’s fundamental factors on the chart from 2017 onwards
  • Gold’s volatile technical overview
  • Silver’s attempted short squeeze, and the gold/silver ratio
  • Precious metals trader sentiment, CoT and retail bias
  • Strategic considerations, approaching a level in volatile times
  • Theory of everything: Running scenario testing on the main asset classes

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