How will Middle East geopolitical risks impact Wall Street this week?

Wall Street reacts to Middle East tensions as Fed rate decision looms

United States (US) stocks fell sharply on Friday as Iran retaliated against Israel with missile strikes, while traders now focus on this week's Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision amid geopolitical uncertainty. The US 500 (S&P 500) futures suggest recovery as Israel's strategic strikes show early success.

US stocks retreat on geopolitical tensions

US stocks closed sharply lower on Friday as risk appetite evaporated after Iran retaliated against Israel's initial attack with missile and drone strikes. For the week, the Wall Street (Dow Jones) slipped 1.32%, the US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100) fell 0.60%, and the US 500 lost 0.39%.

While the situation in the Middle East remains fluid, US US 500 equity futures are trading about 0.95% higher this morning at 6036, likely buoyed by Israel's early success in its counter-strikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, air defences, missile production, and military leaders to cripple strategic capabilities. Additionally, while Israel has targeted Iranian energy infrastructure used domestically in its response, it has refrained from targeting key Iranian oil export infrastructure.

Oil supply concerns add market complexity

Iran only produces about 3.5% of the global crude oil supply. However, there are fears that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel's strikes, which would impact oil trade, as it is the primary route for oil exports from major Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. This is viewed as a measure of last resort by Iran, as it would affect its main customers, China and India, and increase the likelihood of US military intervention.

The knock-on impact of higher energy prices is that they will slow growth and cause headline inflation to rise. While central banks would prefer to overlook a temporary spike in energy prices, if they remain elevated for a long period, it may feed through into higher core inflation as businesses pass on higher transport and production costs.

This would hamper central banks' ability to cut rates to cushion the anticipated growth slowdown from President Trump's tariffs, which adds another variable for the Fed to consider when it meets to discuss interest rates this week.

FOMC interest rate decision

Date: Thursday, 19 June at 4.00am AEST

At the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in early May, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds rate on hold at 4.25% - 4.50%. The Fed cited increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook, noting that 'the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.' Fed Chair Powell also expressed optimism, stating, 'The economy itself is still in solid shape,' and indicating that the Fed doesn't need to rush to cut rates while it takes time to assess the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the economy.

Since the May meeting, while the soft data, including consumer and business surveys, has been weak, the hard data, including last week's non-farm payrolls report, has held up better than expected given the impact of tariff and trade disruptions. On inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, the core PCE price index, most recently at 2.5%, has yet to show any signs of tariff-related inflationary concerns.

Considering this, the Fed is expected to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, reflecting its cautious 'wait and see' approach. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to emphasise data dependency in his press conference, avoiding firm commitments and resisting political pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates. The US rates market finished last week pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 basis point (bp) Fed rate cut for September, with a cumulative 54 bp of Fed rate cuts priced by year-end.

Fed funds rate chart

US Tech 100 technical analysis

Post the US Tech 100's surge higher on 12 May, we have been working with the view that  the rally in the US Tech 100 from the 21 April 17,592 low is a Wave III (Elliott Wave) that should be followed by a Wave IV pullback.

While it is possible that a Wave III high is in place at last week's 22,041 print, a break of support at 21,500 - 21,450 would confirm this and that Wave IV is unfolding back towards support coming from the 200-day moving average (MA) 20,800 - 20,500 area. Providing this support band holds it should then be followed by another leg higher for Wave V.

Aware that a sustained break below the 200-day MA would be an indication of a possible double top formation and warn that a deeper pullback is underway.

US Tech 100 daily chart

US 500 technical analysis

Post the US 500's surge higher on 12 May, we have been working with the view that the rally in the US 500 from the 21 April 5101 low is a Wave III (Elliott Wave) that should soon be followed by a Wave IV pullback.

While it is possible that a Wave III high is in place at last week's 6059 print, further downside follow-through is needed to confirm this and that Wave IV is unfolding. The initial target for the Wave IV is the support coming from the 200-day MA 5800 - 5770 area. Providing this support band holds it should then be followed by another leg higher for Wave V.

Aware that a sustained break below the 5800 - 5770 area would warn that a deeper pullback is underway.

US 500 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 16 June 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}