CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure. CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure.

Dow oscillates to the downside ahead of Senate vote

Both Dow and DAX ended lower while the Nasdaq finished slightly up, retail bias remains heavy to extreme short for all three.

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Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Oscillatory moves for Wall Street near the highs and of little change from how it has historically acted when at or near record highs, failing to reach key levels on the weekly.

The technical overview here while enjoying some positive technical bias (given where its price is at) is showing signs of a break on what has been relatively narrowed ranges. The gains were small for the components that finished higher, most in the red with losses heaviest for IBM and Chevron. And in terms of US data, job openings hit a record high and were above ten million for the first time ever, and well above 9.3 million estimates as the quit rate rose, high openings in hospitality and health care.

It's low-impacting data out of the US today with a bill and note auction before tomorrow's CPI figures.

In Fed speak, Bostic came off as most hawkish on a tapering expected later this year but open to prior if the jobs market continues its improvement. Barkin saying the inflation goal is already met whilst still eying the employment-population ratio, while (non-voter) Rosengren saying ongoing job gains would mean the September meeting is where the criteria on substantial further progress is met. For fiscal stimulus news, the Senate is to vote on the one trillion infrastructure bill today with debate thereafter starting on the $3.5 trillion bill.

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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow

As for retail sentiment, out of extreme sell territory following the price drop but still heavy short.

Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Lack of a play for the indices with prices relatively rangebound, though the Nasdaq edged higher opposite slight retreat for both Wall Street and US 500.

The gains were largest and in the double digits for component Moderna, with Delta variant woes aiding vaccine stocks, which meant non-components' BioNTech and even Novavax, whose share prices suffered on Friday from vaccine delays, enjoyed sizable gains, Pfizer up by a smaller percentage.

Moderna aside, Chinese stocks relatively outperformed with NetEase Inc, Pinduoduo Inc and Inc (All Sessions) relative outperformers, but plenty were in the red with losses heaviest for Sirius Minerals PLC, Match Group Inc, and hotel chain operator Marriott International Inc. The technical overview remains a stalling bull trend here, but one where conformist strategies have failed plenty of times to deliver much needed upside momentum intraday.

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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Nasdaq

Meanwhile, retail traders are still heavy to the sell side, down a notch from the start of the week at 69%.

Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment

DAX technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Near the highs but failing to offer a play and within key levels also best describes this index as of late, though when volatility hits the DAX has a tendency to easily go beyond key levels and give conformist breakout strategies the net edge.

The technicals in this time frame showing price above all its key moving averages, that will continue to slowly move higher and result in a cross if the gains can't be sustained, but with an ADX reading out of trending territory for this time frame.

Outperforming components by the close included Merck & Co Inc (All Sessions) and RWE AG, losses on the other end heaviest for Delivery Hero AG (takes a stake in Deliveroo Holdings PLC - A) and MTU Aero Engines AG (delta variant). German data showed its trade surplus improve even if a slight miss, with a big rise in exports once again. ZEW sentiment figures are today after yesterday's Sentix miss, expectations it'll drop again.

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IG client* sentiment for the DAX

DAX chart with retail sentiment

In sentiment, retail bias is extreme sell and unchanged at 80%. As for sentiment amongst the six indices, Wall Street, US 500, US Tech 100, FTSE 100, Germany 40, Australia 200, it's only the FTSE where retail traders hold a majority long bias, but it has been dropping and is a slight buy 52%, with any significant upside movement there potentially shifting it to majority short, last seen in mid-June.

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.

**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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