CrowdStrike: A Rare Macro Winner in the Inflation Trade
CrowdStrike (CRWD) sits at the sweet spot of two hot retail themes - AI and cybersecurity - but there’s a macro twist too: it actually benefits from rising inflation expectations.
Inflation markets are spooked. Two of President Trump's policy choices are causing markets to price in higher inflation over the next few years. Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods &, even though recent CPI prints have been soft, economists still fear inflation pressures will build over the second half of the year.
Meanwhile the White House continues to attack current Fed Chairman Jay Powell, criticising him for not cutting rates. Polymarket betting odds now show there's a 1-in-4 chance he's replaced before the end of his term next year. That’s added fuel to the reflation narrative.
A lot of stocks will hate higher inflation - it raises the prospect of rate hikes rather than rate cuts. But CrowdStrike isn’t one of them. eyeQ’s model shows a positive link between CRWD and inflation expectations. That macro tailwind has pushed model value up +22% over the past month.
While macro has turned more supportive, bottom-up analysts are turning cautious, flagging stretched valuations. That’s weighed on the stock, which is now off ~6% from recent highs.
But that sets up an opportunity - CRWD now screens 14.5% cheap to macro, triggering a fresh bullish signal on eyeQ.
If you love the AI / cyber story but have missed the rally, macro says there's a second chance here.
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