ASX 200 FY2026 earnings overview – from February boom to August reality check

Most Australian companies report half-year earnings in February for the first six months of the new financial year (1 July to 31 December), with full-year results following in August.

The background

February's reporting season was one of the strongest seen in years, delivering a clear return to profit growth after three consecutive years of declining earnings.

The turnaround was driven mainly by a 33% surge in mining profits, while the banks delivered around 9% growth. Energy was the clear soft spot, with profits falling 18%. Across the market, upside surprises outnumbered downside ones by 1.5 to 1.

While the market showed little tolerance for misses, the broader earnings picture improved meaningfully. That outcome propelled the ASX 200 to its record high of 9202.9 on 26 February and triggered a wave of upwardly revised forecasts towards the 9400 - 9500 area.

New headwinds emerge

As the curtain came down on the February season, a dark cloud emerged in the shape of the conflict in the Middle East. The fallout brought higher crude oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, supply-chain disruptions and uncomfortable questions around Australia's fuel security.

Adding to those offshore headwinds, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which delivered its first rate rise in two years in February, has followed up with two additional rate hikes since.

The result has been higher borrowing costs, weak productivity, persistent inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty – a mix that has weighed heavily on both consumer and business sentiment.

Earnings expectations that looked buoyant back in late February have since been revised lower following a wave of profit warnings and downgrades that have weighed on share prices.

The Federal Government's redistributive Budget, handed down in mid-May, has added to the malaise. Changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing have created a less attractive investment regime, driving a broader reset in risk and return expectations.

Furthermore, the changes to negative gearing are likely exacerbating the decline in house prices that commenced at the start of this year. With residential mortgages making up approximately 45% – 50% of the Big Four's total assets, any sustained softening in property prices raises clear risks around mortgage stress, credit appetite and bad debts. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and Westpac are seen as the most exposed to this headwind.

More broadly, the changes announced in the budget are expected to weigh on animal spirits and the incentive to pursue wealth-creation strategies. It will also impact the second derivative of wealth creation, i.e. the multiplier effect. This is expected to weigh on growth and earnings.

What to watch for

The upcoming August reporting season looks set to be one of the more important in recent years. Geopolitical risks remain elevated and the domestic policy backdrop has shifted meaningfully since February, with three rate rises from the RBA already delivered, a fourth still possible, and budget measures filtering through.

Despite those changes, the market is still looking for around 13% earnings growth this financial year. Some top-down forecasts are more cautious and point to something closer to mid-single digits, with the biggest pressure likely to fall on domestic-facing parts of the market – the banks, housing-related stocks and consumer-facing names.

One notable issue heading into the season, as flagged by United States (US) investment bank Morgan Stanley, is that many of the earnings estimates are outdated, particularly in real estate, technology and healthcare. Resource stocks offer more transparency and timeliness due to their regular quarterly updates.

Other questions

The focus of the August reporting season will centre on the quantity and quality of earnings and dividends, together with forward guidance, as investors seek answers to questions including:

• What does the decline in consumer confidence and housing prices – stemming from the Budget and the renewed potential for RBA rate hikes – mean for consumer spending and profit margins?
• How will the softening in the housing market affect the quality of bank asset books and lending?
• How big an impact will supply disruptions and rising labour costs have on margins?
• How significantly will volatility and swings in commodity prices affect guidance and mining companies' ability to pay dividends?
• Will the dramatic upswing in energy prices translate into a better earnings profile and uplift for energy stocks?

The key dates

Week 1 (27 July – 31 July)

Includes reports from Rio Tinto, Champion Iron and Capstone Copper.

Week 2 (3 – 7 August)

Features Light & Wonder, REA Group, AMP, Beach Energy, News Corp, Block, Charter Hall, ResMed and Nick Scali.

Week 3 (10 – 14 August)

Brings results from Treasury Wine Estates, Life360, Commonwealth Bank, Suncorp, AGL Energy, Amcor, Origin Energy, Computershare, Telstra, ASX, IAG, Helia, QBE, Mesoblast and 4DMedical.

Week 4 (17 – 21 August)

The busiest, with BlueScope Steel, JB Hi-Fi, SEEK, Sims, BHP, CSL, Cochlear, Lendlease, Transurban, Iluka Resources, James Hardie, Hub24, a2 Milk, Reliance Worldwide, Stockland, Breville, Pro Medicus, Evolution Mining, Whitehaven Coal, Regis Resources, Santos, Sonic Healthcare, Downer EDI, Vault Minerals, Northern Star, Super Retail Group, Dexus, Goodman Group, Zip, Bega Cheese, Megaport, Superloop and Telix Pharmaceuticals.

Week 5 (24 – 28 August)

Includes Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Ampol, Reece, Viva Energy, Coles, Ansell, Woodside Energy, Flight Centre, AUB Group, DroneShield, Eagers Automotive, Tabcorp, Emerald Resources, Fortescue, Paladin Energy, Worley, Sandfire Resources, Domino's Pizza, Nine Entertainment, Wesfarmers, Woolworths, Australis, Lynas Rare Earths, Generation Development, NEXTDC, South32, WiseTech Global, Harvey Norman, Perpetual, Qantas, Silex Systems, Magellan Financial, Mineral Resources and Endeavour Group.

Which stocks will we be taking a closer look at?

A selection of stocks across the various ASX 200 sectors will be previewed to provide a guide on what to expect and what to look for.

• Rio Tinto (28 July)
• Beach Energy (6 August)
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (12 August)
• JB Hi-Fi (17 August)
• A2M (17 August)
• BHP (18 August)
• Cochlear (18 August)
• Coles (24 August)
• Wisetech Global (26 August)
• Qantas (27 August)
• DroneShield (27 August)

ASX 200 technical analysis

The ASX 200 has been stuck in a broad 8500 – 9000 trading range for the past 16 weeks, largely due to the headwinds outlined above.

Within that range, the 8800 - 8780 zone – which includes the 200-day moving average – has acted like a magnet since mid-June.

With the August reporting season now upon us, the scene is set for a break of the range, though the direction of that break remains to be seen.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 28 July 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}