The ASX 200 swung sharply after a steep sell-off and recovery, as rising Fed rate expectations and falling oil prices drove market volatility.
The Australia 200 trades 10 points (-0.12%) lower at 8615 as of 3.30pm AEST.
The heightened volatility plaguing the ASX 200 in recent weeks was again on display today as the index plunged a stomach-churning 134 points (-1.5%) to a low of 8490.1, before staging a remarkable +100-point recovery, very similar to the price action seen last Tuesday.
The sharp early falls came as the ASX 200 responded to Friday night’s heavy losses on Wall Street, triggered by a robust non-farm payrolls report that pulled forward pricing for the first Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike into late 2026. The subsequent rebound came as United States (US) crude oil futures fell back below US$90 and US equity futures trimmed early losses. Investors grew more confident that the latest ceasefire between Israel and Iran would hold after President Trump stepped in, urging both sides to ‘immediately stop shooting’.
Some support emerged for the interest rate-sensitive consumer sectors after National Australia Bank (NAB) Chief Economist Dr Sally Auld said she no longer expects another Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike this cycle and believes the next move is likely lower. This follows recent soft data, including last week’s tepid gross domestic product (GDP) print and today’s weak business and consumer confidence numbers, which suggest the economy has ‘lost momentum’.
The news that the RBA might be closer to a cut than a hike helped consumer-facing stocks.
The same news also helped the financials sector bounce off its intraday lows.
The heaviest selling today came in the materials sector, which fell for a third straight session as base metals and iron ore prices gave back some of their recent gains. Among the big names:
In the copper space:
In the volatile uranium space:
From its mid-April high of 9021.5, the ASX 200 shed 536 points (-5.9%) into the May 8485.2 low. The rebound from the 8485.2 low saw the ASX 200 briefly push above the 200-day moving average (MA) in early June to a high of 8810.5, before reversing lower to revisit the 8485 support area earlier today.
Until the ASX 200 can break above the 200-day MA, now at 8786.9, and last week’s 8810.5 high, downside risks remain and would build on a break of critical support at 8490 - 8480ish. Conversely, a sustained close above 8790 - 8810ish would negate the downside risks and open the way for the ASX 200 to push towards the mid-April 9021.5 high.
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