Dow traders tempted to take profits

Price at time of writing – 15,761.

The recent surge has continued since my last update two weeks ago, taking the Dow another 191 points closer to my target level at 16,175. 

The index now resides just 414 points (or 2.6%) short of the resistance band that has been a feature in my updates for a very long time. Long-term holders of the index could be excused for jumping ship slightly short of this target, and leaving the last 2% to someone else. Strictly, however, the long recommendation remains intact until the target is fulfilled.

Today's Dow chart reverts to my alternative version, and highlights a line of resistance in a band defined as 15,590-15,647. In the bigger picture, I would describe this resistance as minor, and I have deliberately deleted it from my main working chart on the index. The current assault on this resistance is the fourth such attempt to break through since May this year, and early indications suggest intimidation is ebbing away. In a rising market, sideways churn around resistance such as this is mostly a positive sign, and a final burst up towards 16,175 remains the most likely course of events.

Time-angles on today's chart also show the pace of incline is slowing. Rising angles that emanate from lows in October 2011 and November 2012 were both penetrated last August, providing leading technical indicators that we are moving closer to a high of some importance.

Recommendation: stay long. Target 16,175, where profits should be booked and short positions opened.

Dow Jones chart

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