What should investors expect from Apple's Q3 2025 earnings?

When will Apple report its latest earnings?

Apple is scheduled to report third quarter (Q3) 2025 earnings on Thursday, 31 July 2025, after the market closes.

Q2 2025 recap

Apple's second quarter (Q2) 2025 earnings, released on 1 May, beat Wall Street's (Down Jones) expectations. However, the company's closely watched Services sector disappointed, which was instrumental in Apple's share price finishing 3.74% lower in the next session at $205.35.

• Earnings per share: $1.65 diluted vs $1.63 expected
• Revenue: $95.4 billion vs $94.66 billion expected

Cook's insights on future costs

In the earnings call, CEO Tim Cook noted limited tariff impact in Q2 due to supply chain optimisation but cautioned that future impacts are hard to predict due to potential policy shifts. Cook estimated that President Trump's tariffs would increase costs by $900 million in Q3 (April to June 2025), assuming current global tariff rates remain unchanged.

Trump's tariff ultimatum

On 23 May 2025, US President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on Apple products not manufactured in the US, criticising Apple's India production plans in a Truth Social post.

"I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the US."

Trump's aggressive post resulted in a 3% fall in Apple's share price that day, closing at $195.27. Analysts estimate that US production could raise iPhone prices to $3,500, impacting affordability.

Key numbers to watch in Q3 2025

In its Q2 earnings call, Apple projected revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits year-on-year, compared to $85.8 billion in Q3 2024, implying revenue of approximately $88.5 billion to $89.0 billion. Gross margin was guided to be around 46% at the midpoint, factoring in $900 million in tariff costs. No specific EPS guidance was provided.

Key financials - summary

Wall Street's expectations for the upcoming results are as follows:

• Earnings per share: $1.43 diluted vs $1.65 in the previous quarter
• Revenue: $89.1 billion vs $94.5 billion in the previous quarter

What else to watch for?

• iPhone performance: revenue projected at approximately $47 billion, up from $46.84 billion in Q2, despite Huawei's competition and prior discounts in China.
  
  
• Mac sales: forecast to grow approximately 5% to $7.5 billion (from $7.95 billion in Q2), supported by M4 chip upgrades and back-to-school demand, though growth may slow compared to Q2's 7% rise.
  
  
• Services growth: anticipated double-digit growth to approximately $27.5 billion (from $26.6 billion in Q2, up 12%), driven by App Store sales, Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple Intelligence subscriptions.
  
  
• AI developments: updates on Apple Intelligence, including Siri enhancements and ChatGPT integration, are critical. Investors expect details on AI-driven upgrades boosting iPhone/iPad sales and pricing.
  
  
• China market: recovery signs in China are key after Q2's stabilisation. Huawei's Mate 70 launch and tariff risks could challenge market share.
  
  
• Guidance for Q4: Apple's unofficial guidance (post-2020) will be scrutinised for AI-driven upgrade cycle projections, tariff impacts, and holiday season demand.

Additional watch points

• Tariff impact: clarity on $900 million Q3 cost and potential escalation from Trump's 25% tariff threat (23 May 2025) if US production isn't accelerated.
  
  
• Supply chain shifts: progress on moving iPhone production to India and iPad/Watch to Vietnam to mitigate tariffs.
  
  
• Regulatory risks: updates on EU and US antitrust probes into App Store policies and AI partnerships.

Summary of Apple's revenue

Is Apple a buy or a sell?

Apple has a TipRanks Smart Score of '9 Outperform' and is rated as a 'Buy' by analysts with 14 'Buys', 10 'Holds' and one 'Sell' recommendation as of 22 July 2025.

Apple technical analysis

Apple's share price peaked at $260.10 in late 2024, before a significant decline to a low of $169.21 in April 2025, a fall of 35%. It has since recovered about 50% of its fall, or approximately $90, to be trading at $212.48, leaving a neutral outlook in place ahead of its earnings report.

In terms of the key downside levels to watch for, Apple's share price has been well supported in recent months on dips into the $195 to $193 region. Below here, the $169 to $165 range has provided strong medium-term support, with bounces from this support zone noted in October 2023 and April 2024 before holding firm again earlier this year. These support levels are where buyers may look to take advantage of a dip on an earnings miss.

On the topside, short-term resistance is viewed in the $215 to $216 zone and is being reinforced by the 200-day moving average at approximately $222. If the stock can break through the band of resistance between $215 and $222 on an earnings beat, it could open up a retest of the $250 high of February this year.

Apple daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 22 July 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}