Bitcoin's remarkable journey into the mainstream and new highs in 2025

From election surge to market recovery

Following President Trump’s election victory on 5 November last year, Bitcoin surged from $70,000 to a high of $109,356 on his inauguration day, 20 January 2025. Thereafter, Bitcoin completed a round trip as it fell 31% to a low near $74,500 in early April, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs rocked markets.

Bitcoin versus US equity markets

The decline in Bitcoin from its January high to the April Liberation Day low was just 6% greater than the 25% fall experienced by the US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100). However, that’s where the similarity ended.

While widespread panic and margin selling were evident in equity markets in April, Bitcoin's pullback in April exhibited clear corrective qualities within a bullish flag before breaking higher two weeks later, as noted in our post on X here on 22 April.

Exactly one month after this post, Bitcoin hit a fresh record high of $112,000 on 22 May, outperforming key United States (US) equity markets by more than a month in the race of key risk assets to new highs.

Key considerations

Resilience in uncertain times

While Bitcoin did undergo another correction (as did other risk assets) during the peak of uncertainty in the ‘12-Day War’ between Israel and Iran in mid-June, Bitcoin has since hit a fresh record high of $123,236 on 15 July.

Institutional adoption and structural support

The rally to the $123,236 high was driven by investor optimism regarding trade deals and underpinned by robust institutional adoption from hedge funds, pension funds, and wealth managers. The institutional wave in 2025 has provided a structural bid for Bitcoin, cushioning it against tariff and geopolitical-induced volatility and enabling faster recoveries.

Regulatory advancements boosting confidence

The move to new highs this month also coincided with Crypto Week in the US, which boosted sentiment and included three bills on crypto regulation:

• Crypto Clarity Bill
• Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act
• The Genius Act

These acts provide a clearer regulatory framework, which will likely encourage fresh investment into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies..

Bitcoin's future

Bitcoin’s trajectory remains tied to global economic developments. A plethora of events is scheduled this week, including central bank interest rate meetings for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), key US jobs and inflation data, and secon quarter (Q2) 2025 earnings reports. An additional consideration is the looming 1 August deadline for US tariff negotiations with the many countries that have failed to secure trade deals, including Canada and Mexico.

In conclusion, while tariffs and conflicts have tested markets, Bitcoin’s ability to set new highs ahead of equities, bolstered by institutional adoption and pro-crypto regulation, underscores its unique position in the financial landscape. Furthermore, a more mature performance this year, way beyond its years, highlights its role as a leading gauge of market sentiment, with implications for global markets.

Bitcoin technical analysis

As can be viewed on the monthly chart below, the $123,236 high of mid-July formed at multi-month trendline resistance dating back to the $19,666 high of December 2017.

Bitcoin monthly chart

Since that point, bitcoin has spent the past sixteen days consolidating its recent gains within a bullish flag (for the third time this year) as viewed on the daily chart below.

Putting the longer-term and shorter-term technicals together, a sustained move above long-term trendline resistance, currently at approximately $125,000, is needed to indicate the next leg higher towards $150,000 is underway.

Until then, allow for the current period of corrective activity to continue, which may include a retest of support at $112,000 coming from the record high of May 2025.

Bitcoin daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 30 July 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}