US November non-farms payrolls preview

Job growth is expected to slow in the latest payrolls report. Is this a sign of tougher times to come?

Job growth to slow

From last month’s 661,00 jobs, this month’s payrolls release is expected to show an increase of 600,000, a modest slowdown, but the lowest reading since the rebound in job creation began earlier in the year. The unemployment rate is expected to improve however, falling to 7.6% from 7.9%. This continues the positive direction of travel from the 15% peak.

But can the US keep adding jobs as the Covid-19 crisis intensifies? Far from turning a corner, the virus situation in the country continues to worsen, with cases still climbing. Crucially, the near-term outlook for the economy has darkened, given the lack of a new fiscal stimulus programme.

ADP numbers this week showed a sharp drop from the expected level and from last month, at 365,000 for the month from 753,000 last month, and a 650,000 forecast. Investors will be hoping non-farm payrolls can avoid following this figure.

Dollar outlook

The week has seen the dollar give up all its late October gains, as the basket heads back to 92.50. This points towards further upside for EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to move to a more accommodative footing, both to help a slowing economy and to compensate for the reduced chances of a stimulus programme arriving soon thanks to the election result.

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.

Please see important Research Disclaimer.

Be ready to act on the next non-farm payrolls report

Explore the influence the non-farm payrolls report has on American markets ahead of the next release on 2 July 2021.

  • Which markets could be more volatile after the NFP report?

  • Why was the report introduced and what does it tell us?

  • Why is the report important for traders?

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.

The Momentum Report

Get the week’s momentum report sent directly to your inbox every Monday for FREE. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming key events to monitor in the coming week, as well as commentary and insight from our expert analysts on the major indices to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.