US dollar technical forecast: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/THB, USD/IDR
US dollar continues to see mixed performance against ASEAN currencies; USD/SGD resistance breakout struggling, USD/PHP could extend losses and USD/THB eyeing resistance breakout, USD/IDR remains in neutral state.
Singapore dollar technical outlook – neutral
The US dollar aimed slightly higher against the Singapore dollar this past week. Still, USD/SGD remains in a broadly consolidative state. In the medium-term, the pair is ranging between support (1.3381 – 1.3419) and resistance (1.3693 – 1.3743). A bullish Golden Cross remains in play between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This also follows a break above falling resistance from December. Clearing the 1.3607 – 1.3631 inflection zone would shift the outlook increasingly bullish. Otherwise, falling under the SMAs may open the door to retest key support.
USD/SGD daily chart
Philippine peso technical outlook – slightly bearish
The Philippine peso found some cautious strength against the US dollar this past week. USD/PHP confirmed a break under a near-term rising trendline from the end of February, opening the door to extending losses. This also follows negative RSI divergence, a sign of fading upside momentum. Immediate support appears to be the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension at 51.869, with the 50-day SMA soon after. To the upside, resuming gains entails breaking above the 78.6% extension at 52.406. That would expose the August 2019 high at 52.80.
USD/PHP daily chart
Thai baht technical outlook – slightly bullish
The US dollar aimed cautiously higher against the Thai baht this past week, closing above the 33.463 – 33.572 resistance zone. This also followed a break above the falling trendline from December. Still, upside progress has been lacking and negative RSI divergence continues to persist. A bullish Golden Cross also remains in play between the 20- and 50-day SMAs. Further gains expose the 33.861 – 34.000 resistance zone. Beyond the latter sits the July 2017 high at 34.149. Turning lower and falling below the SMAs could open the door to revisiting lows from February.
USD/THB daily chart
Indonesian rupiah technical outlook - neutral
The US dollar aimed slightly higher against the Indonesian rupiah last week, but USD/IDR remains mostly in a consolidative state. Guiding the pair higher appears to be rising support from November. Key resistance seems to be the 14402 – 14438 zone. Clearing the latter would shift the outlook increasingly bullish, exposing the 14465 inflection point before the July high kicks in at 14560. On the flipside, falling under rising support could open the door to a steeper drop towards the October low at 14075.
USD/IDR daily chart
Follow Daniel Dubrovsky on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX
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