The Nasdaq 100 and EUR/USD dip on a 30% United States tariff threat on European Union and Mexican imports, while WTI crude oil rises.
Written by
Senior Technical Analyst
The Nasdaq 100 has come off last week's 22,915 all-time high, but the daily relative strength index (RSI) is displaying triple negative divergence. This increases the odds of at least a short-term retracement lower soon being seen.
The 7 July low at 22,588 may be retested and, if it gives way, the 1 July low at 22,388 may be reached as well. Were this level to be fallen through, a medium-term top may be formed with the 22,000 region being back in view.
A rise above last week's 22,915 record high would likely engage the 161.8% Fibonacci extension target at 22,930 and the 23,000 region.
According to recent analysis, EUR/USD slide off its 33/4 year high at $1.1830 is approaching its February-to-July uptrend line at $1.1636, which, together with the 12 June peak at $1.1632, is expected to offer support. If not, the April high at $1.1573 may be revisited as well.
While Thursday's high at $1.1749 caps, short-term downside pressure should remain in play.
The WTI crude oil's tame recovery from its $64.03 per barrel 24 June low has on Friday for the first time taken it above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $68.34, which should now act as minor support.
Were last week's high at $68.90 to be overcome on a daily chart closing basis, the late March high at $70.18 would be back in the frame.
Upside pressure is expected to be maintained while Thursday's low at $66.48 underpins. Further minor support can be spotted around the late June high at $66.39.
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