US earnings season
Tesla Q2 2025 earnings preview: key metrics and robotaxi updates
Tesla reports Q2 2025 earnings on 24 July as investors scrutinise revenue declines, robotaxi progress, and the impact of Elon Musk's political involvement on brand performance.
When is Tesla reporting?
Tesla is scheduled to report its second quarter (Q2) 2025 earnings on Thursday, 24 July 2025 at 4.05am (SGT) after the US market closes.
Wall Street analysts and investors will scrutinise the results as the electric vehicle company navigates challenging market conditions, declining sales and fallout from CEO Elon Musk's high-profile involvement in US and German politics.
Q1 2025 recap
Tesla's Q1 2025 report shocked the market: revenue fell 9% year-on-year to $19.34 billion, automotive margins slid to 16.3% and EPS missed consensus by almost 29%. Management responded by withdrawing its full-year 2025 growth outlook, blaming "evolving trade policies" and "uncertain macroeconomic conditions".
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Street Q1 2025e | Surprise |
| Revenue | $19.34 bn | $21.11 bn | –8.4% |
| Earnings per share (EPS, adjusted) | $0.27 | $0.38 | –28.9% |
| Automotive gross margin | 16.3% | 17% | –0.7 pp |
- Trade policy risk: the United States has scrapped federal EV tax credits via the "Big Beautiful Bill", while the European Union is considering retaliatory tariffs on US-built cars. Meanwhile, China has hinted at higher duties on imported luxury EVs. These changes could lift Tesla's cost base 5%–7% and squeeze overseas demand.
- Macro headwinds: higher interest rates are dampening discretionary spending, particularly on big-ticket items such as cars. Global real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2.4% in 2025 (IMF, April update), down from 3% in 2024.
- Competitive dynamics: price cuts by rivals including BYD, Ford and Volkswagen force Tesla either to match discounts thus eroding profitability, or risk losing share in its core Model 3/Model Y segments.
Management said it would "revisit our 2025 guidance in our Q2 update", making next week's call a potential catalyst. Street estimates now span 1.35 million to 1.66 million vehicle deliveries for 2025 (vs 1.79 million in 2024). Any new target (or confirmation that guidance remains suspended), will drive the share price.
Political polarisation hits Tesla's bottom line
European market backlash intensifies
Musk's endorsement of Germany's Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party in January 2025 has triggered measurable damage to Tesla's European operations. Industry data shows Tesla's market share in Germany fell to 2.8% in Q1 2025 from 4.1% in Q4 2024, with several corporate fleet managers publicly cancelling Tesla orders.
The backlash extended beyond Germany, with Norwegian sovereign wealth fund Norges Bank announcing a review of its Tesla holdings, citing "reputational risks associated with political activities." Tesla's charging network partnerships with European retailers have also faced scrutiny, with some reconsidering their associations.
US consumer sentiment shifts
Domestic political entanglements have proven equally damaging. Tesla's brand perception among US consumers has deteriorated significantly since Musk's public feud with President Trump began in May 2025. A recent Harris Poll found Tesla's brand favourability dropped 18 percentage points among Democrats and 12 points among independents between April and June 2025.
The elimination of federal EV tax credits through Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" has directly impacted Tesla's pricing strategy. The company was forced to implement temporary price cuts of up to $7500 on Model 3 and Model Y vehicles to maintain sales momentum, further pressuring already declining margins.
Regulatory and competitive implications
Musk's political activities have created additional regulatory headwinds. The formation of his America Party has triggered Ethics Office investigations into potential conflicts of interest from his previous DOGE role. Meanwhile, competitors like Ford and General Motors have capitalised on Tesla's political controversies, with Ford's "Built for America" campaign explicitly contrasting its apolitical stance.
Tesla's expansion into new markets has also been complicated by Musk's political profile. Planned manufacturing facilities in India and Southeast Asia have faced increased scrutiny from local governments concerned about associating with politically divisive figures.
Key numbers to watch in Q2 2025
| Metric | Q2 2024 | Q1 2025 | Consensus Q2 2025e |
| Revenue | $25.5 bn | $19.3 bn | $22.8 bn |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.52 | $0.27 | $0.43 |
| Automotive gross margin | 18.3% | 16.3% | 16.44% |
| Deliveries* | 443,956 | 336,681 | 384,122 (reported) |
- Revenue: is expected to be $22.8 billion, a roughly 11% decline from $25.5 billion in Q2 2024. Strong energy storage revenue may partially offset automotive weakness, but investors will watch if discounts further erode average selling prices.
- Earnings per share (EPS): Adjusted EPS is expected to be around $0.43, down from $0.52 in Q2 2024.
- Automotive gross margins: Tesla's automotive gross margins will be a critical focus after dipping to 16.3% in Q1 2025 from 18.3% in Q2 2024. The expectation is for it to stabilise at 16.44% in Q2 2025 (this quarter).
- Vehicle deliveries and production: Tesla reported Q2 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles (down 13.5% year-on-year but up 14% from Q1's 336,681) and production of 410,244 vehicles (flat year-on-year, up from Q1's 362,615). Investors will seek confirmation of these figures and guidance on Q3 production and delivery trends, especially whether Tesla can achieve over one million deliveries in H2 2025 to meet or exceed 2024's 1.79 million total.
- Energy storage and services revenue: Tesla's energy storage business deployed 9.6 GWh in Q2, slightly below recent quarters but a significant contributor to revenue (10% of total revenue in 2024). Investors will look for record gross profits in this segment and updates on the Shanghai Megapack factory, set to start in Q1 2026. Services revenue growth is also expected to help offset automotive declines.
- Political impact metrics: investors will scrutinise regional sales breakdowns, particularly European deliveries and US market share trends. Tesla's ability to maintain corporate fleet contracts and charging network partnerships will be crucial indicators of long-term brand damage. Commentary on government relations and regulatory positioning will also be closely monitored.
- Guidance and strategic updates: after withdrawing 2025 growth guidance in Q1, Tesla promised to revisit it in Q2. Investors will scrutinise any new guidance on annual deliveries (analysts estimate 1.35 to 1.66 million vehicles for 2025, down from 1.79 million in 2024) and updates on affordable vehicle production (expected to start in H1 2025), robotaxi rollout (planned for Austin in June 2025), and Full Self-Driving (FSD) progress. Musk's comments on tariffs and political backlash will also be key, given their impact on demand.
Summary of Tesla’s revenue
Robotaxi updates crucial for Tesla's future
The market will be keenly focused on updates regarding Tesla's robotaxi initiative, especially given its critical role in Tesla's valuation and Elon Musk's vision for autonomous driving. Tesla launched its robotaxi pilot in Austin, Texas, on 22 June 2025, with a small fleet of 10–20 Model Y vehicles operating in a limited area, initially with human safety monitors.
Tesla's stock surged 9.2% after the Austin launch, adding $95.7 billion in market capitalisation, reflecting investor enthusiasm for autonomy. However, a 4% drop followed reports of erratic driving, underscoring volatility tied to robotaxi performance. The earnings call will be critical for Musk to address safety concerns, provide concrete expansion plans, and reinforce confidence in Tesla's autonomous future, especially amid political and competitive headwinds.
Tesla's robotaxi Cybercab car
Is Tesla a buy or a sell?
Tesla has a TipRanks Smart Score of '1 Underperform' and is rated as a 'Hold' by analysts with 13 'Buys', 13 'Holds' and nine 'Sell' recommendations - as of July 15th, 2025.
Telsa TipRanks
Tesla technical analysis
Tesla's share price is trading at $316.90, 21.3% below where it started the year, significantly underperforming the US Tech 100 which has gained 8.77% YTD. It is also trading 35% below its record high of $488.54 from December last year.
These factors have led to speculation that Tesla could be kicked out of the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7), a prestigious collection of top-performing tech stocks consisting of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.
The stock's underperformance relative to the broader EV sector reflects not just operational challenges but also "Musk risk" - investor concerns about the CEO's political activities affecting business fundamentals. This political premium has become a significant factor in Tesla's valuation multiple compression compared to traditional automakers.
With the Q2 earnings report due next week, the stock is at a pivotal point closing right on the 200-day moving average. A sustained break above downtrend resistance at $347, following positive earnings (eg robotaxi updates or better-than-expected EPS) could trigger a rally towards resistance at $367.71 coming from the May high.
Conversely, a miss could push the price lower initially towards the $273.21 low of early June, especially if guidance remains weak on tariff and delivery concerns.
Tesla daily chart
- Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 15 July 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
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