Tesla Q1 earnings: what will figures mean for the share price?

After rebounding from its March lows, will Tesla’s stock struggle in the wake of upcoming Q1 earnings?

When is Tesla’s earnings date?

Tesla reports earnings on 29 April, covering its first quarter (Q1).

Tesla earnings: what does Wall Street expect?

Compared to Q1 last year, Tesla will report a strong set of figures for vehicle deliveries, up 40% over the year to over 88,000. Revenue is expected to be up by almost a third, and the loss per share is expected to improve dramatically, hitting 18 cents versus a loss of $2.90 for every share in Q1 2019.

However, as with almost all firms in this earnings season, the outlook for Q2 and beyond will be the key driver for stock performance. The factory in California is currently shut, and is not expected to return to production in the near future. Meanwhile, the economic outlook continues to deteriorate, putting pressure on consumer spending in the US and around the globe.

How to trade Tesla earnings

Volatility in Tesla surged into March, with the 14-day average true range surging from 2000 in early January to a high of over 8020, or an average daily swing of around 22%. We have seen this decline since, but it remains at an elevated level compared to the first weeks of 2020, at 6080 or 8% of the stock price.

Tesla stock: technical analysis

After falling almost 66% from its February peak, the stock staged an impressive rebound from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in mid-March. The price has, for bulls, managed several key things. It has stopped falling (at least for now), and has, with its pullback into early April, established a higher low around $450. It has also moved back above its 100- and 50-day SMAs, leaving it ‘just’ 20% below its February peak.

If the price does roll over and push lower from here, it will have created a lower high, a possibly negative development. Further losses bring $450 and $350 into view. Alternately, further gains head towards the January and February highs at $916. Rising trendline support from the March lows could come into play around $615.

Tesla’s rebound sets a high bar

While bulls will cheer the surge for Tesla from its March lows, it means that the bar for strong performance in its upcoming earnings has been raised significantly. Unless we see some impressive figures, the market may look to take profits on Tesla stock. However, the longer-term trend is still intact for now, which might mean any pullback becomes a buying opportunity in due course.

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