Nvidia is set to report Q1 2026 earnings on May 29th amid lofty expectations driven by the AI boom.
Key focus areas include Blackwell architecture performance, China exposure, and forward guidance.
Written by
Market Analyst
Nvidia is scheduled to report its first quarter (Q1) earnings for 2026 on Thursday, 29 May 2025 at 4.30am (SGT), after the market closes.
Nvidia's fourth quarter earnings results, released earlier this year, on February 26th, exceeded expectations.
Founder and CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang said: "We've successfully ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers, achieving billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter. AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries."
Despite the positivity, Nvidia shares dropped 8.5% the next session, closing at $120.15 - the worst one-day decline since the DeepSeek sell-off on 27 January 2025.
While Nvidia posted strong results, investors accustomed to substantial earnings beats viewed the Q4 numbers as less impressive. Concerns arose due to the deceleration in revenue growth, which fell from a 94% year-on-year increase in Q3, and narrower margins due to the costs associated with launching new products, particularly the Blackwell architecture.
In fiscal Q4 2024, Nvidia's adjusted gross margin dropped to 73.5% from 75% in Q3. The company expects its adjusted gross margin to decrease to 71% in the current quarter as it scales up Blackwell production.
Close attention will be paid to the following factors which will shape investors reactions following the earnings report:
The Blackwell platform, which generated $11 billion in Q4 2025, is a focal point. Investors will scrutinise updates on its production scale and revenue contribution, as it's described as Nvidia's fastest product ramp ever.
Commentary on supply chain constraints or demand trends for Blackwell chips will be critical, especially given analyst estimates of $75.1 billion in data centre revenue for fiscal 2026, with Blackwell as a major driver.
Tightened US export restrictions on AI chips to China have impacted Nvidia. The company is reportedly looking to develop lower-cost, export-compliant chips to maintain access to the Chinese market and retain its shrinking foothold in China's $50 billion data centre market.
Nvidia's forward guidance will be pivotal, as investors are showing hypersensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Analysts are looking for Q2 guidance of approximately $45.8 billion while looking for fiscal year 2026 revenue to reach approximately $198.8 billion, a significant jump from 2025's $130.5 billion, with EPS projected at $4.32.
The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup developing models with less powerful chips, has raised questions about whether Big Tech's AI spending might shift away from Nvidia's high-end GPUs. CEO Jensen Huang has argued that DeepSeek's reasoning models will increase demand for Nvidia's Blackwell chips, but investors will seek reassurance that Nvidia's 98% market share in data centre GPUs remains secure.
US tariffs and trade policies have weighed on Nvidia's share price. While chip imports were later exempted, any commentary on tariff impacts or supply chain resilience will influence investor confidence, especially given Nvidia's global supply chain exposure.
Nvidia has a TipRanks Smart Score of '6 Neutral' and is rated as a 'Buy' by analysts with 34 'Buy', four 'Hold' and one 'Sell' recommendations as of 23 May 2025.
Nvidia shares are currently down 2.23% this year, last at $131.29, after reaching a high of $153.13 and a low of $86.62 in 2025. Ahead of this week's earnings report, the options market is pricing in elevated volatility, indicative of a potential +/- $11 move in either direction.
Based on Friday's close, this suggests the stock could fall to $120 or rise to $142 following its earnings release.
However, while there have been some outsized moves post Nvidia's earnings report including a 16.4% surge in February 2024, often the actual movement in Nvidia's share price has been less dramatic than implied by the options market.
Nvidia's share price has endured a roller coaster ride this year, hitting a record high of $153.13 in early January, driven by optimism about its AI chip dominance and strong demand for its Blackwell platform.
However, a significant correction commenced shortly afterwards with its share price falling 16% in a single day on 27 January 2025, on concerns about competition from Chinese AI lab DeepSeek. The correction deepened after its Q4 2025 earnings report in late February disappointed before tariff and trade policy pressures pushed it to a low of $86.62 in early April.
Since then, Nvidia's share price has rebounded almost 60% from its April low, hitting a high of $137.40 last week. This move suggests the uptrend has likely resumed after the correction it experienced earlier this year.
Looking forward, the 200-day moving average at $126 shapes as important downside support, reinforced by the December 2024 low of $126.86. Below that, there is important horizontal support at $115, which we need to see hold to keep the uptrend from the $86.62 low intact.
On the topside, initial resistance is viewed at last week's $137.40 high, before a denser layer of resistance from the record high $153 area.
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