Novavax earnings – what to watch ahead of Q3 earnings release

Novaxvax will report its third quarter earning on November 4th after market close.

Novavax earnings – What to expect?

The report will be covering company’s earnings for the third quarter ending September 2021. The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter will be around -$3.91 slightly down from the same quarter last year which was -$3.21, but better than last quarter’s -4.75%.

Novavax outlook and forecasts

Despite the negative numbers on the book, Novavax Incs first approval from the Indonesian authority and the upcoming decisions from other countries like India and Philippines will be the major catalysts that would see the company start to generate revenues from its product sales in the near future. Apart from developing countries who are in urgent need for vaccines, Novavax also finalised a deal with the European Commission for an order of 200 million doses in August. Agreements with other countries for a total of 200 million doses has also inked so far. If everything goes well, Novavax will be a major provider to Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance - with an advance purchase agreement for more than one billion doses.

Based on three Wall Street analysts’ forecast who voted for “strong buy” unanimously, Novavax’s average price target for the next 12 months will be $290.33 with a high forecast of $305.00 and a low forecast of $272.00. The average price target represents a range of 48% to 56% upper margin from the last price of $195.30 on November 2.

Novavax stock – Technical analysis

Looking back, the vaccine maker didn’t get much enjoyment on the reporting day for the past 12 months, in each of the four trailing quarters, share price took a tumble at a significant level from 10% to 21%, largely due to the worse than estimated result. However, the outlook might be a bit different this time.

NVAX earnings price changes

Report date

Price one day before

Price one day after

Percentage change

EPS estimate

EPS actual

% surprise

August 5th 2021 $223.81 $189.89 -15.16% -3.76 -4.75 20.84%
May 10th 2021 $176 $138.18 -21.49% -2.65 -3.05 13.11%
March 1st 2021 $231.23 $205.99 -10.92% -1.53 -2.7 43.33%
November 9th 2021 $89.86 $78.74 -12.37% 2.36 -3.21 206.30%

Although an earning beat is not expected for Q3, the share price of Novavax has walked out from its low on October 19th and surged by 67% since then. The shining light from the vaccine approval has fuelled up the bullish sentiment for its investors.

From the technical standpoint, the recent rally from the past two weeks has already placed the share price well above the 20-day SMA, nearing its longer term 50 and 100-day SMA, suggesting a solid shift is on the way. Near term, further upward movement faces resistance at the level between $204-$222, the shoulder line commenced the recent drop. Once broken, the recent high at $272 should be in view. Despite the uptrend, if the Q3 earnings report proves to be another disappointment, coincided with the over-bought RSI indicator and the Novaxvax drop in the short term, a notable support near $162 would be the key level to eye on.

In summary

Novavax has experienced a rollercoaster year: its share price has shrunk more than half from its high at $331 in February to $112 in October. But this journey appears to be in the past soon with little doubt that the first approval for this belated vaccine maker will start a new chapter and bring more material value to the book. So even though the Q3 earnings report might offer little surprise, it will surely help investors to better evaluate the company from a long-term perspective.

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