Netflix share price: Q1 2021 results preview

In this article we look at what to expect and how to trade the upcoming Netflix Q1 2021 results.

When is Netflix earnings date?

Netflix Inc., the Nasdaq listed, world leading internet television network will report its first quarter earnings for 2021 (Q1 2021) on Wednesday 20 April 2021.

Netflix results Q1 2021 earnings preview, what to expect?

Netflix has guided in their previous results release (Q4 2020) that the company expects to see an increase of 6m net paid subscribers. The group is targeting a 20% profit margin in 2021, a 2% increase from the previous financial year. Investors will be looking to see the progress thereto in the first quarter. Revenue for the period is forecast to be around $7.1 billion, which would suggest year on year growth of roughly 24%.

How to trade the Netflix results

A Refinitiv data poll surveying 48 analysts maintains a consensus long-term average rating of buy for Netflix (as of 15 April 2021), with 13 of these analysts recommending a strong buy, 20 recommending a buy, seven hold, three sell and one with a strong sell recommendation on the stock. The median long-term share price target from these analysts is $650.

89% of IG clients with open positions on Netflix (as of 15 April 2021) expect the share price to rise in the near term, while 11% of IG clients with open positions on the company expect the price to fall.

Netflix share price: technical analysis

The long-term price trend for Netflix remains up, as indicated by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) - blue line, and the red trend line on the chart below. In the medium term we have a broad sideways rangebound price environment and in the short term the price is overbought at resistance.

Traders respecting the long-term uptrend would look to keep a long bias to trades on Netflix, although be weary of the short-term bearish price reversal off resistance and from overbought territory.

With these indications in mind, our preference is to wait for short-term weakness to play out, and look for a bullish price reversal somewhere between the $489 and $510 levels for long entry. In this situation a close below the reversal low would be a stop loss consideration for the trade, while the $560 resistance level.

In summary

  • Netflix Q1 2021 results are set for release on 20 April 2021
  • 6 million net paid subscriber additions are forecast
  • Revenue of $7.1 billion is expected at a year on year growth rate of 24%
  • The consensus analyst rating on Netflix is buy
  • The mean of analyst forecasts arrives at a long-term price of $650
  • The majority of IG clients with open positions on Netflix expect the price to rise
  • The long-term trend for Netflix remains up, although in the short term the price is overbought at resistance

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