Moderna share price: what to expect from Q4 and full year results

In this article we look at the Moderna share price and estimates ahead of the Q4 and FY20 results.

When is the Moderna earnings date?

The Moderna earnings release date is scheduled for the 25 February 2021. The results will cover the groups fourth quarter (Q4) and full year earnings.

Moderna results preview: what does the Street expect?

While Moderna is expected to have seen revenue surge significantly for financial year 2020 (FY20), increases in clinical trial expenses, raw materials, manufacturing costs, personnel costs, as well as consulting and outside services costs are expected to keep earnings in negative territory for the year. Moderna is however expecting a positive net cash flow from operating activities for the full year, driven by customer deposits which were at approximately $1.2 billion as of September 2020.

Consensus estimates as sourced from Refinitiv Data arrive at the following, in terms of the groups upcoming results:

  • FY20 revenue of $519 million expected from $60.21 million realised in FY19
  • FY20 loss per share of $1.55 (same as in FY19)

How to trade the Moderna results

The two graphics below provide traders with both a retail short term view on the stock, as well as an institutional longer-term view on the Moderna share price, as to how market participants are positioned ahead of the full year earnings release.

A Thomson Reuters poll of 16 analysts maintain a long-term average rating of ‘hold’ for Moderna (as of the 22 February 2021), with two of these analysts recommending a strong buy, six buy, five hold and three sell ratings on the stock.

From a retail trader perspective (as of 22 February 2021), 93% of IG clients with open positions on Moderna expect the share price to rise over the near term, while 7% of IG clients with open positions expect the price to fall.

Moderna share price: technical analysis

The share price of Moderna has seen its uptrend accelerating sharply, particularly since November 2020, where promising test results saw the company emerge as one of the global leaders in terms of effective Covid-19 vaccines.

Since making a new short-term high, the share price of Moderna has pulled back to a low of $167.95 before once again forming a bullish price reversal (circled blue). Aggressive short term traders might consider the reversal a suggestion that the near term highs at $189.25 might be tested once again, using a close below the $167.95 reversal low as a stop loss consideration.

Longer term trend followers might however prefer to wait for a more sizeable correction back towards trend line support for long entry. Currently we have a confluence of horizontal gap and trend line support at around the $135.50 level.

In summary

  • Moderna full year results are scheduled for release on the 25 February
  • Group revenue for FY20 is expected to have increased by more than 100%
  • A loss per share in line with FY19 is expected in FY20
  • The average long-term broker rating for Moderna is ‘hold’
  • IG clients with open positions on Moderna expect the price to rise in the near term
  • A technical analysis view on the company shows an uptrend which has been accelerating, although trend followers might hope for a deeper pullback before looking for long entry

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