Moderna share price: Q1 2021 results preview​​​​

We look at what to expect and how to trade the upcoming Moderna Q1 2021 results.

When is Moderna’s earnings date?

The Moderna earnings release date is scheduled for 6 May 2021. The results will cover the group's quarter one (Q1) financial year 2021 (FY21) earnings (January to March 2021).

Moderna results preview: what does the Street expect?

Moderna has said that 2021 will be a pivotal year for the group's future success as years of research now move to profitability with commercial operations now well underway. The company’s improved cash flow is now allowing for increased scalability, evident in recent news that the Massachusetts manufacturing facility will see its 300,000 square foot operations expanded to more than double its current floor space.

Project priorities indicated by the group in 2021 include:

  1. Maximising the impact of Moderna Covid-19 vaccine access and the value creation of this product between now and the end of 2021
  2. Accelerate vaccine development to advance their pipeline and bring new vaccines to market
  3. Generate human proof-of-concept data in autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular diseases, oncology and rare diseases
  4. Continue to expand the use of mRNA technology to maximize the potential impact they can have on patients

Investors will look to Moderna’s progress regarding the aforementioned goals. In terms of the upcoming results, ‘the Street’ arrives at the following consensus estimates:

How to trade Moderna Q1 results

The two graphics below provide traders with both a retail short-term view on the stock, as well as an institutional longer-term view on the Moderna share price, as to how market participants are positioned ahead of the Q1 earnings release.

A Refinitiv poll of 16 analysts maintain a long-term average rating of ‘hold’ for Moderna (as of 4 May 2021), with two of these analysts recommending a strong buy, six recommending a buy, five hold, three sell and zero strong sell recommendations on the stock. The long-term price target mean from these analysts of $175.50, suggests the current share price to be trading at a 3% premium to the suggested fair value.

From a retail trader perspective (as of 3 May 2021), 86% of IG clients with open positions on the Moderna expect the share price to rise over the near term, while 14% of IG clients with open positions expect the Moderna price to fall.

Moderna share price: technical analysis

The Moderna share price currently trades in a broad range over the medium term between levels $117.10 (support) and $189.25 (resistance). In the short term, we are seeing a bearish price reversal forming at resistance of this range. The bearish reversal is supported by an overbought signal on the stochastic oscillator. The bearish reversal at resistance whilst in overbought territory suggests short-term weakness with $156.95 the initial support target. Traders who are short might consider using a close above the $189.25 level as a stop loss indication for the trade.

Summary

  • Moderna Q1 FY21 results are scheduled for release on 6 May
  • Group revenue for the quarter is expected to be realised at $2.04 billion
  • EPS for the quarter is expected to be realised at $2.39
  • The majority of IG clients with open positions on Moderna expect the price to rise in the near term
  • A technical analysis view on the Moderna share price shows a short to medium-term rangebound price environment, with the price overbought at resistance

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