Market update: crude oil price may test $100, while natural gas is not yet out of the woods
Crude oil’s break above key resistance points to further rise; immediate downside risks in natural gas haven’t been eliminated; we guide you on the key levels to watch.
Crude Oil: A trend reversal?
Crude oil’s ascent appears to be getting stronger, as reflected in the steepening angle of the uptrend since June. This follows a break above quite a few times tested resistance on a horizontal trendline since the end of 2022. has triggered a breakout from a multi-month sideway zone. The break has opened the way toward the October high of 93.00.
Crude oil weekly chart
Crude oil technical analysis
The bullish break has triggered a double bottom (the March and May lows), pointing to a potential rise toward 103. The potential for a significant low/capitulation was first pointed out in May. Crude oil’s subsequent break above-converged support on the 89-day moving average and the 200-day moving average.
Crude oil 240-minute chart
Oil may resume broader uptrend
Last month’s crack above a horizontal trendline from January (that came at about 83.00) sealed the breakout from a multi-week range. Oil looks set to test another horizontal trendline from 2022 (at about 93.00), which would be a key confirmation of the resumption of the broader uptrend. Such a break would also coincide with the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly charts.
Crude oil daily chart
Natural gas: holding above support
The intraday trading ranges in natural gas have narrowed further in recent weeks. Despite the narrowing volatility, natural gas has held above the crucial horizontal trendline since July (at about 2.40-2.50). At the same time, natural gas hasn’t been able to build any meaningful upward momentum since after staging a lower top at the end of August.
Natural gas daily chart
Is the natural gas rebound over?
The failure to reach the early-August high raises the risk that the five-month-long rebound is over, provided the 2.40-2.50 support gives way. Any break below 2.40-2.50 could pave the way toward the Q1-2023 lows of around 1.95-2.00.
Natural gas weekly chart
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