Here’s how much Penfolds could be worth as a stand-alone entity
We examine the implications of TWE's proposed Penfolds demerger.
Investors are often accused of being overly preoccupied with the short-term; while at the same time expecting businesses to focus on the long-term. Ideally both would lead towards the latter – but the world is made of few ideals.
Proportionality in focus
In the name of long-term value creation and following a strategic review of the company’s portfolio, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) yesterday announced it was considering a demerger of its all-important Penfolds brand.
Overall, while Penfolds accounts for only a fraction of TWE’s overall volumes, it accounts for more than half of the company’s earnings.
In light of that – Treasury’s CEO, Michael Clark – yesterday argued that: 'A potential demerger would enhance New TWE's and Penfold's ability to pursue their own strategic priorities and deliver a stronger long-term growth profile under separate teams and ownership structures.'
Chairman Paul Rayner also sought to remind investors that 'Penfolds is an icon of Australian luxury, with impressive margins and significant growth runway in Asia and globally.'
Looking at what this could all mean for current shareholders, the company reassured investors that if the demerger were to go ahead, ‘shareholders would own a share in Penfolds and in New TWE proportional to their existing TWE holdings.'
Of course, before any such demerger would go ahead, the company said the plan would first be subject to a detailed cost and benefits evaluation; as well as require approval from shareholders, the Board and a variety of regulatory bodies.
If all goes to plan, Treasury expects the potential demerger to be completed by the end of CY21.
Treasury Wine Estates share price: the valuation game
Though Treasury’s management team is understandably optimistic about the prospect of ‘long-term’ value creation at the hands of this ambitious spin-off, analysts from Citibank are a shade more sceptical.
Here, the investment bank bluntly points out that:
‘While attention is likely to focus on Penfolds as the growth engine, without a decent valuation for New TWE (the masstige/commercial wine business), it will not be rewarding for shareholders, in our view.’
More importantly, according to Citi, at current price levels both businesses are already fairly valued and thus, a potential demerger is ‘unlikely to create immediate synergies.’
All up, following a potential TWE spinoff, Citibank estimates Penfolds’ standalone enterprise value at $6,460 million – implying a share price of $7.82 per share.
As a corollary of this, the investment bank notes that in a Penfolds-less world, the New Treasury Wine Estates entity has an estimated enterprise value of $2,871 million – implying a share price of $3.24 per share.
Possible worlds aside, in its current form, Citi has a Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of $11.05 on TWE.
How to trade Treasury Wine: long or short
What do you make of this potential demerger: will it foster long-term value or destroy it? Whatever your view, you can trade indices, currencies and equities like Treasury Wine Estates – both up and down – through IG’s world-class trading platform now
For example, to buy (long) or sell (short) Treasury Wine Estates using CFDs, follow these easy steps:
- Create an IG Trading Account or log in to your existing account
- Enter ‘TWE’ or ‘Treasury Wine Estates’ in the search bar and select it
- Choose your position size
- Click on ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ in the deal ticket
- Confirm the trade
IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.
The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
Please see important Research Disclaimer.
Seize a share opportunity today
Go long or short on thousands of international stocks.
- Increase your market exposure with leverage
- Get spreads from just 0.1% on major global shares
- Trade CFDs straight into order books with direct market access
Live prices on most popular markets
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.