GlaxoSmithKline share price: what to expect from Q4 results

In this article we find out what we can expect from the upcoming GlaxoSmithKline results, how they could affect the GlaxoSmithKline share price as well as how to trade the earnings.

When is GlaxoSmithKline earnings date?

The GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) earnings release date is scheduled for the 3 February 2021. The results will cover the groups fourth quarter (Q4) and full year earnings.

GlaxoSmithKline results preview: what does the Street expect?

GlaxoSmithKline fiscal year 2020 (FY20) revenue is expected to see currency translations weigh around 2% on the full year figure. Pharmaceutical sales for the group are expected to have declined in 2020, when excluding the group’s divestments. The vaccines business, although contracting (year on year) in the first nine months of 2020, has started to recover in the latter part thereof. Growth in the consumer healthcare division is expected to be driven by the groups Joint Venture operation with Pfizer, with a mix of both positive and negative impacts from the ongoing pandemic.

Consensus estimates arrive at the following in terms of the groups upcoming results:

  • FY20 revenue $45.35 billion expected from $43.06 billion realised in FY19
  • FY20 earnings per share (EPS) of $3.07 expected from $3.16 realised in FY19

How to trade GlaxoSmithKline Q4 results

The two graphics below provide traders with both a retail short-term view on the stock, as well as an institutional longer-term view on the GlaxoSmithKline share price, as to how market participants are positioned ahead of the Q4 earnings release.

A Thomson Reuters poll of 25 analysts maintain a long-term average rating of ‘buy’ for GSK (as of the 1 February 2021), with seven of these analysts recommending a strong buy, five recommending a buy, 11 hold, one sell and one strong sell recommendation on the stock.

From a retail trader perspective (as of 1 February 2021), 98% of IG clients with open positions on the GSK expect the share price to rise over the near term, while 2% of IG clients with open positions expect the GSK price to fall.

GlaxoSmithKline share price (LSE listing): technical analysis

The longer-term trend for the share price of GlaxoSmithKline remains down. In the short- to medium-term the price has moved into a triangle shaped consolidation phase. Triangle shaped consolidations often suggest that the trend which preceded the formation will be continued, in this situation that preceding trend is down.

However it is prudent to wait for a breakout confirmation when trading such a pattern. In this scenario a close below 1335, might provide such confirmation, in which case the low at 1300 would become the next support target from the move.

Traders hoping for a longer-term trend reversal (from down to up), might instead hope for a move higher and break of the confluence of both horizontal and trendline resistance at roughly the 1440 level.

In summary

  • GlaxoSmithKline Q4 results are scheduled for release on the 3 February
  • Group revenue for FY20 are expected to have increased marginally from the previous year
  • EPS are expected to have declined marginally from the previous year
  • The average long-term broker rating for GlaxoSmithKline is ‘buy’
  • The majority of IG clients with open positions on GlaxoSmithKline expect the price to rise in the near term
  • A technical analysis view on GlaxoSmithKline shows a longer-term down trend and shorter-term consolidation

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