China PMIs show strong recovery amid US presidential debate chaos

China’s PMIs were seen supporting sentiment in the latest September release while the first US presidential debate unfolded with little fresh insights into the election outcome.

September PMIs broadly surprised

Arriving ahead of expectations had been the Chinese official PMIs whereby both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI topped consensus. Specifically, the manufacturing gauge came in at a 6-month high while the non-mfg PMI reading was the highest noted since November 2013. Caixin manufacturing reading for September edged down to 53.0 but remains well in expansion territory. The broad takeaway ahead of the National Day holiday in China from October 1-8 and for Hong Kong and Taiwan for the rest week had been continued strong rebound from the Chinese PMI readings.

A quick comparison of the Caixin PMI with the likes of the US and eurozone readings had seen this alignment of the recovery picture. Drilling deeper into the Chinese data, the new orders and export orders components across both the official and Caixin manufacturing readings had also been ones in red, reflecting the improvement in global demand. As a result, this had seen to a boost for market sentiment in Asia though fluctuations with the US presidential election unfolding in tandem had also been noted.

US presidential debate chaos

While items ranging taxes to climate change had been brought to the table in the first US presidential debate, most of what had been discussed in what appeared to be a chaotic name-calling session were not new to the market. In turn, that had a limited effect on market in the immediate aftermath of the debate. Other than making a reference to China surrounding the Covid-19 spread by President Donald Trump, trade policies had also not been discussed thus seeing to a lack of substantial reaction at this point. Some selling had however been noted across US futures and the erasing of gains for Asia later into the day. Despite the verbal brawl having been one to see to no change in Democratic nominee – also an Asia equity and FX friendly choice – holding on to the lead in polls, the mayhem of a debate had perhaps lifted the short-term risks of a contested election. One for risk sentiment.

USD/CNH however found little reasons to be alarmed at this point, still trading heavy in the narrow range into Wednesday. Despite the slight USD index strengthening, positive Chinese PMI readings keeping the downward momentum unchanged for USD/CNH, watching further downsides in the short-term. China’s absence from Thursday over October 1-8 would however make for low participation in the period.

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.

Please see important Research Disclaimer.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.

The Momentum Report

Get the week’s momentum report sent directly to your inbox every Monday for FREE. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming key events to monitor in the coming week, as well as commentary and insight from our expert analysts on the major indices to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.