Bumble share price: Where next following Q1 results?

We unpack the online dating company’s latest set of quarterly results as well as look at their updated Q2 and full-year guidance.

Bumble Share Price in Free-Fall

Online dating company Bumble (ticker: BMBL) has been caught up in the recent tech rout, with the stock down a little more than 26% in the last five trading sessions.

Higher than expected inflation figures drove that sell-off, though tech stocks such as Bumble did rebound during the back-half of the week, with the high-multiple name gaining 5.78% on Friday.

This all comes as the dating company posted another period of strong growth, last Wednesday reporting solid first quarter top-line figures and a surprise profit.

Q1 Results Examined

The headline figure from Bumble’s quarterly was Q2 revenues of $170.7 million. Of those total revenues, $112.6 million were derived from the Bumble App , while the remaining growth came from Badoo App and Other Revenue sources.

From a customer perspective, the company added 600 thousand paying users in the quarter, taking total paying users to 2.8 million, implying year-on-year growth rate of 30%. Those users are also becoming incrementally more valuable to the company, with the average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) coming it at $19.99, up from $17.73 from the prior corresponding period.

On the bottom-line, the company reported adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of $46.1 million and a surprise net profit of $323.4 million.

To clarify that net earnings figure, the company actually reported an operating loss before tax of $113 million, but a substantial tax benefit totalling $436 million, would see net earnings swing positive for the quarter.

Commenting on these results, Bumble CFO, Anu Subramanian said:

‘Our first quarter results reflect significant growth in paying users as well as improved monetization, positioning us to raise full year 2021 guidance.’

Looking forward, the CFO added:

‘We are making strategic investments in product and technology to continue growing our community and capitalizing on the large market opportunity in front of us.’

The Analyst Response

In the wake of these results a handful of analysts made the following adjustments:

  • Jefferies lowered their price target on the stock from $82.00 to $65.00, but retained their Buy rating
  • BMO Capital altered their rating from Positive to Market Perform and lowered their price target from $65.00 to $55.00
  • Evercore ISI lowered their price target from $64.00 to $53.00
  • Susquehanna, bucking that that trend, boosted their price target on Bumble from $70.00 to $78.00

Bumble Q2 + Full-Year Guidance

Looking at the company’s own second quarter (Q2) guidance, Bumble said it now expected:

  • Quarterly revenues of between $175 million to $178 million
  • Adjusted quarterly earnings (EBITDA) of between $42 million to $44 million

And on the topic of full-year guidance, the company said it now expected FY21:

  • Revenues of between $724 million to $734 million. Previous guidance was for full-year revenues of between $716 million to $726 million.
  • Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of between $177 million to $182 million. Previous guidance was for full-year EBITDA of between $173 million to $178 million.

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