Bitcoin halving: the analysts’ view on where the BTC price is heading

As bitcoin approaches its next halving, due in May, we look at two competing views on where the crypto currency could be headed.

What is the bitcoin halving and when will it happen?

The next bitcoin halving is due to take place in the week commencing 11 May, 2020. Bitcoin will halve the reward for mining new blocks, meaning miners receive 50% fewer BTC for verifying transactions. Bitcoin halvings happen once every 210,000 blocks – roughly every four years.

You can learn more in our complete guide to the bitcoin halving

What do analysts expect from the halving?

If the correlation between bitcoin and the general markets continues, Goldman Sachs says that bitcoin is in for a rough ride. It's basing this on the premise that the two work in tandem and that the S&P 500 is showing signs of stress.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs found that the five largest companies now account for a whopping 20% of the S&P 500's entire capitalisation, indicating a narrowing of market breadth down to levels that it says indicate a big stock sell off. To what degree the sell-off comes is up for debate. This is just one assessment and it's relying on a correlation between Bitcoin and the equity markets.

On the flipside there's the argument that bitcoin may be on its way up. Why? For this, let’s take a look at the bitcoin chart. It’s just broken resistance, which gives it a little fresher air to breathe. At 7710 you can see we’re at the highest we’ve seen since 13 March.

Bitcoin is about to undergo a halving, which is in effect a supply rate cut in a couple of weeks. It comes at about the same time when the Federal Reserve would be oversupplying their banking system with trillions of US dollars. This could put a bit of a spark under the crypto market as the scarcity of BTC alone could prompt investors to increasingly move their newfound capital into the bitcoin market.

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.

Please see important Research Disclaimer.

React to global volatility

Market volatility continues as coronavirus concerns amplify. Trade with IG and take advantage of:

  • Tight spreads – from just 1 point on major indices, and 2.8 on US crude
  • Guaranteed stops – they’re free to use, and only incur a fee when triggered
  • Round-the-clock assistance – our highly skilled team are available when you need support

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins.

The Momentum Report

Get the week’s momentum report sent directly to your inbox every Monday for FREE. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming key events to monitor in the coming week, as well as commentary and insight from our expert analysts on the major indices to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.