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AUD/USD climbs amid commodity surge and positive PMIs

The Australian dollar showed remarkable strength last wee and with commodity trends and upcoming economic data in focus, the AUD/USD faces a critical week ahead.

Source: Bloomberg

AUD/USD's strong rebound

The AUD/USD showed notable resilience last week, rebounding from below 0.6500 on Monday to nearly touching 0.6600 by week's end. This recovery was largely driven by rising commodity prices and unexpectedly strong global PMI figures.

The currency pair's well-known sensitivity to economic growth and commodity price fluctuations was evident last week. Significant weekly increases in copper (+5.71%), gold (+4.35%), and crude oil (+4.50%) aided the AUD/USD in countering the dovish tone of the minutes from the RBA’s March Board meeting.

The continuation of the AUD/USD's upward trend for a third consecutive week will hinge on the sustained rise in commodity prices, alongside the forthcoming US CPI and PPI data, reflecting the Federal Reserve's inflation focus. Additionally, Australian consumer confidence data, set to be released tomorrow, could influence the currency's performance.

Expectations from the Westpac Confidence Survey

Date: Tuesday, 9 April at 10:30am

In March, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index dropped by 1.8% to 84.4, down from an 86 high in February, marking a 20-month peak. This decline mirrors the ongoing concerns among households regarding their financial situations and the cost-of-living challenges.

The RBA's March Board meeting minutes revealed that the central bank did not contemplate an interest rate hike, the first in nearly two years. The publication of these minutes occurred during the Consumer Sentiment Index's survey period. With potential tax cuts on the horizon, there is an anticipation of improved consumer confidence in April.

Source: Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute

AUD/USD technical analysis

On the weekly chart, the AUD/USD continues to fluctuate sideways within a contracting multi-month bearish triangle. Downtrend resistance, originating from the January 2023 high of 0.7158, is currently at 0.6780.

Uptrend support, starting from the October 2022 low of 0.6170, is at 0.6325. The midpoint of this range, where price action is typically most volatile, stands at 0.6552, which is 25 pips below the current price.

AUD/USD weekly chart

Source: TradingView

On the daily chart, the AUD/USD rebounded from last Friday's low of 0.6481, ending the week stronger at 0.6580.

If the AUD/USD aims to extend last week's gains, it will face initial resistance at around 0.6625/35, followed by the early March high of 0.6667. On the downside, the first level of support is the 200-day moving average at 0.6543, with subsequent support around 0.6480, derived from the swing lows of March and April.

AUD/USD daily chart

Source: TradingView
  • Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 8 April 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

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