The world's largest cryptocurrency surged to an all-time high, riding the risk-on wave as markets grow confident that US interest rate cuts are imminent.
Bitcoin surged to an all-time high on Thursday, riding the same risk-on wave boosting global equities as markets grow increasingly confident that US interest-rate cuts are imminent. The rally has been underpinned by expectations of easier policy, a more supportive regulatory backdrop, and ongoing institutional inflows.
This breakthrough to new highs marks a significant milestone for the flagship cryptocurrency, validating the bullish thesis that has driven institutional adoption and mainstream acceptance over recent years.
The timing of the record high coincides with broader risk asset strength, demonstrating Bitcoin's increasing correlation with traditional financial markets during periods of monetary policy speculation and economic optimism.
The sustained move above previous resistance levels suggests that institutional participation and improved market structure are providing the foundation for price discovery at levels that were previously theoretical targets.
Between Wednesday and early Thursday (13–14 August), Bitcoin pushed above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2019–2021 advance (projected from the 2022 low) at $122,056.92, before printing a new peak at $124,277.50 and then slipping back underneath.
This Fibonacci extension level had been widely watched by technical analysts as a key target, and its successful breach on Wednesday confirms the strength of the current bull market phase and opens the door to higher price objectives.
A sustained break above $124,277.50 would keep upside momentum intact, opening scope towards the next 161.8% extension around $143,519.00 in the medium term. Slightly further up lies the psychological $150,000.00 mark which represents another significant milestone that could attract additional institutional and retail interest.
Initial supports sit just below the 17 July high at $121,012.09, then the 15 July low at $120,271.13, followed by the 28 July high at $119,836.23. These levels provide a framework for understanding potential pullback targets if profit-taking emerges.
A reversal through Wednesday's trough at $118,919.91 would possibly bring the $117,921.57-$117,701.33 support band (7–9 August highs) back into view as potential support, while a failure there could see a move towards the 22 July low near $116,195.25.
The density of support levels in this range reflects the multiple attempts Bitcoin has made to break higher, creating a solid foundation that could limit the extent of any near-term corrections.
These technical support levels become particularly important for investors looking to add to positions on any weakness, providing objective entry points based on previous market structure.
The current rally reflects growing market confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates in September, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Lower interest rate expectations have weakened the US dollar and boosted demand for alternative assets, with Bitcoin benefiting from its growing acceptance as a store of value and hedge against traditional monetary policy.
The correlation between Fed policy expectations and Bitcoin's performance highlights how the cryptocurrency has evolved from a purely speculative asset to one that responds to traditional macroeconomic drivers.
This development represents a maturation of the Bitcoin market, as institutional participants increasingly view it through the lens of portfolio allocation and monetary policy rather than purely technological or speculative considerations.
The record high comes amid continued institutional adoption through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasury adoption, and sovereign wealth fund interest. These structural demand sources provide a foundation that differentiates the current cycle from previous speculative episodes.
Regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions has removed many of the overhang factors that previously constrained institutional participation, enabling pension funds, insurance companies, and other large investors to consider cryptocurrency allocation.
The presence of regulated ETF products has democratised access to Bitcoin exposure while providing familiar investment vehicles that institutional investors can more easily incorporate into their existing processes and risk management frameworks.
Corporate adoption continues to evolve, with companies exploring Bitcoin both as a treasury asset and as part of payment and settlement systems, creating additional sources of structural demand.
The Bitcoin market's evolution includes significant improvements in infrastructure, custody solutions, and trading platforms that support higher prices and reduced volatility compared to earlier cycles.
Increased market depth and liquidity from institutional participation helps dampen the extreme price swings that characterised Bitcoin's earlier development, though significant volatility remains a defining characteristic.
The development of sophisticated derivatives markets provides additional tools for risk management and price discovery, enabling more precise positioning and hedging strategies for institutional participants.
These structural improvements create conditions where Bitcoin can potentially sustain higher price levels while attracting broader investor participation from those who had previously been deterred by infrastructure or regulatory concerns.
The current environment of price discovery above previous highs creates both opportunity and uncertainty, as the outlook becomes less clear when markets enter uncharted territory.
Risk management becomes even more critical during these phases, as the absence of historical resistance levels makes it difficult to predict where selling pressure might emerge or how sustainable the current momentum proves to be.
Bitcoin's achievement of new all-time highs validates the long-term bullish thesis while opening the door to even higher targets if institutional adoption and macroeconomic conditions remain supportive.
The combination of technical momentum, institutional demand, and favourable policy expectations creates a compelling case for continued strength, though the inherent volatility of cryptocurrency markets means that significant corrections remain possible even within ongoing bull market trends.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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