Taco Tuesday déjà vu: global stocks wobble on Trump’s tariff tease

Market reactions: a tariff aftershock, not a seismic shift

US stock markets took a hit overnight following President Trump's announcement of new tariff rates on fourteen countries, including 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea. This dented hopes that they had escaped his vice-like tariff grip.

Given the modest declines in US equity markets and a 0.60% drop in Nikkei 225 futures overnight, this latest round of tariff news feels more like an aftershock, one the market was prepared for, rather than the seismic event that shook markets on Liberation Day over three months ago.

Global trade dynamics: who's in and who's out?

There is still time for the affected 14 countries to reconsider their stance on US tariffs and trade before they come into effect on 1 August. Meanwhile, as suspected, Canada and Mexico have been excluded from the list due to their USMCA protections, relatively low tariffs on US goods, and strategic importance as North American partners.

Europe was also excluded, as it appears close to a "preliminary agreement in principle" ahead of the 9 July deadline. A basic framework, similar to the UK's recent deal, is viewed as the most likely outcome, with details to be finalised later.

Trump's tactical tweets: the "Taco Tuesday" tariff twist

President Trump, who has been active on social media this morning, has further softened the blow by saying the 1 August deadline for the new tariffs is "firm," though not 100% certain.

This opens the door for another round of "TACO Tuesday," Trump-style.

Countdown to 1 August: more tariff letters on the horizon

The Trump administration plans to send additional tariff letters to more countries later this week, following the initial batch sent today. As such, tariff updates and headlines are likely to dominate headlines between now and 9 July and into the new August deadline.

As always, we will lean against the chart levels outlined in the technical analysis section below to safeguard the view outlined above.

US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100) technical analysis

Post the US Tech 100's (Nasdaq 100) surge higher on the 12th of May, we have been working with the view that the rally in the US Tech 100 from the 21st of April 17,592 low is a Wave III (Elliott Wave) that should be followed by a Wave IV pullback. The rebound in late June from our key 21,500/450ish support level opened the way for the US Tech 100 to push to record highs and for the Wave III to extend towards weekly trend channel resistance at 23,200ish.

A sustained break of short-term support at 22,350 would be an indication that the Wave III is complete and that a Wave IV pullback is underway.

The initial target for the Wave IV is a band of support near 22,000 with a sustained break of this level opening the way for a deeper decline towards wave equality support at 21,200.

US Tech 100 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 8 July 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}