Markets calm ahead of crucial week

Today has been the calm before the storm for markets, as Mario Dragi's jawboning has heightened market expectations, and the UK turns Black Friday into Cyber Weekend.

St Paul's Cathedral, London
Source: Bloomsberg

Today marked the calm before the storm, as markets meander into a massive week for economic and fundamental announcements. Tomorrow not only represents the beginning of the heavyweight economic news, but it is also the first of December; a month which is synonymous with the fabled Santa rally. After all, December has represented the best month for stocks over the past three decades, having gained nine out of the last ten years. The question is, with both the ECB and Fed expected to act in December, which one will have the biggest impact upon markets?

As with most market events, the question will be how much any action from the ECB and the Fed will already be factored in. There is a good chance that even if we saw Draghi move on Thursday, the high expectations could provide some surprising moves should his actions be deemed insufficient. Draghi no doubt has a talent for jawboning the euro lower, yet as we approach Thursday’s meeting, there is a possibility that his actions may not match his words.

While there is a difference between Black Friday and Cyber Monday in naming conventions, it is clear that UK shoppers are more accustomed to the online experience, increasingly shunning the stores to shop digitally over the weekend. The £1 billion sales mark was cleared on Friday, highlighting the bumper sales that many high street and online brands will experience. However, with the holiday season historically providing such a reliable source of sales, there is a still a strong argument to say that firms would make better money selling less at a higher margin. 

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