Greece can stay for now, but for how long?

The appearance of eurozone leaders bearing a deal has given markets a lift on a dreary Monday morning.

Greek flag
Source: Bloomberg

It is hard to fault the eurozone’s timing. Having steadily built the anticipation all weekend, leaders were finally able to announce a deal this morning. Markets have reacted in a suitably ebullient tone, if only out of relief that a weekend summit has managed to produce something of substance. The hard work is not over – the deal still has to be got through national parliaments, with Athens and Berlin being the main ones to watch.

It would not be surprising to see Alexis Tsipras depart the stage before the end of the week, given that he is likely to face more than a little opposition to a deal that is worse than the one Greeks rejected last week. A new national unity government would then result, and while this would provide a platform for reforms in line with creditor demands it does little for the image of European democracy.

For now, investors are in a confident mood, but whether this optimism will survive the week as the details become clear and the nit-picking begins is another matter. US earnings season will take over from Greece as the main focus, which will be a welcome change of pace for all concerned.

Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress later in the week will also be of prime importance, as she looks to avoid being pinned down on the exact timing of interest rate rises. Ahead of the open, we expect the Dow Jones to start 65 points higher at 17,825. 

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