The week ahead: 6-10 October

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

Alcoa logo
Source: Bloomberg

It’s been a messy week for global markets, with a mini-correction in equity indices and steep falls for oil. Over the coming weekend markets will keep a close eye on the situation in Hong Kong, in case negotiations do not well.

In the coming week the Federal Reserve minutes are the most important element, but the start of earnings season will be in focus too, as Alcoa takes its traditional place at the beginning of proceedings. 


Economic reports


Bank of Japan monetary policy statement (October), TBC: The Japanese central bank is not expected to make any broad changes to policy, but it may hint that its time fame for achieving 2% inflation will be tweaked. This would likely exert additional downward pressure on USD/JPY. Market to watch: USD/JPY

Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision (Oct), 3.30pm: Expectations are for the Australian central bank to leave rates unchanged at 2.5%. Market to watch: AUD/USD

German industrial production (August), 7am: Data from Germany is still weak, with year-on-year growth forecast to slow to 0.6% from 2.5% in July. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

UK industrial & manufacturing production (August), 9.30am: Industrial production MoM is supposed to be 0%, with YoY 2.6%. Manufacturing production is expected at 0.1% MoM, and 3.4% YoY. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP


HSBC China services PMI (September), 2.45am: The figure is forecast to drop to 53.03 from the August reading of 54.1. Market to watch: China A50, Hong Kong HS50, AUD/USD

US EIA crude inventories: As the bear market in oil continues, the data should offer some comfort if it does show a drop in inventories. Market to watch: US Light Crude

Fed minutes (September), 7pm: The Fed hawks have become more vocal of late, but the ‘considerable time’ reference stayed in place. Markets will look to see which Fed members dissented from the decision. Market to watch: All major indices and global FX crosses


Australian unemployment (September), 1.30pm: The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 6.1%, while the number of jobs added is expected to be 12,000, from 121,000 in August. Market to watch: Australia 200, AUD/USD

European Central Bank Monthly Report (October), 9am: This report provides commentary on the state of the eurozone economy. Keep an eye out for discussion of inflation, possible additional measures to boost the economy, and the GDP estimate. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Bank of England meeting (October), 12pm: Like most BoE meetings, no change is expected, which will leave markets to await the minutes later in the month to see if the voting patterns have changed. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: The figure dropped to 287,000 last week, and a fall to 283,000 is forecast this week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses


UK trade balance (August), 9.30am: The gap between the UK’s exports and imports is forecast to widen slighty, to £3.4 billion, from £3.348 billion last month. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Canadian unemployment (September), 1.30pm: The jobless rate in Canada is forecast to hold at 7%, with 8400 jobs added in the month. Market to watch: USD/CAD


Company announcements


Alcoa, Costco, Monsanto, Safeway


PepsiCo, Family Dollar Stores


FTSE ex-dividend shares (Thurs 9 October): Kingfisher, Weir, Aviva, WPP, Travis Perkins

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