The week ahead 21 – 25 July

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

Amazon logo on the floor
Source: Bloomberg

Economic data takes a back seat to some degree next week, as UK and US companies keep investors busy with a barrage of earnings. Monday is the relative calm before the earnings storm, but overall the season has got off to a good start. If anything can counter the negative news from Ukraine and elsewhere it will be this, with manufacturing PMIs also being crucial for the overall rally.


Economic reports


German PPI (June), 7am: Price growth should rise to 0.1% from 0.2% month-on-month, and from -0.8% to -0.7% year-on-year. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Chicago Federal Reserve index (June), 1.30pm: This index of activity was at 0.21 last month, an increase would be favourably viewed by equity markets. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses


US CPI (June), 1.30pm: US price growth is forecast to shrink to 0.3% from 0.4% MoM, and remain steady at 2.1% YoY. Market to watch: Dollar crosses

Richmond Federal Reserve index (July), 3pm: This index is expected to rise to 5 from 3 last month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US existing home sales (July), 3pm: Home sales in the US have eased lately, and the MoM % change is expected to weaken to 1.6% from 4.9%, while the annual rate is expected to rise to 4.97 million from 4.89 million. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses


Australian CPI (Q2), 2.30am: In this week of CPI news, Australian prices should ease on a QoQ basis to 0.5% from 0.6%, but increase YoY from 2.9% to 3%. Market to watch: AUD/USD

Bank of England minutes, 9.30am: Although there was still no change at the latest meeting, the hawkish commentary has been building, especially now data is coming in much stronger. Keep an eye out for any changes to the usual 9-0 consensus on rates. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP


HSBC China manufacturing PMI (July, preliminary): HSBC's estimate of growth should nudge further into growth, from 50.7 to 51 this month. Market to watch: China A50, Hang Seng, FTSE 100, copper, AUD/USD

German manufacturing, services, composite PMI (July, preliminary), 8.30am: German data has been weaker, and all three indices are expected to be nudged lower, to 51.9, 54.4 and 53.8 respectively. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD

Eurozone manufacturing, services, composite PMI (July, preliminary), 9am: A similar situation prevails in the eurozone, with indices forecast to be trimmed to 51.7, 52.6 and 52.7 respectively. Market to watch: EUR/USD, Euro Stoxx 50

UK retail sales (June), 9.30am: Consumer spending in the UK is perhaps the last piece of the puzzle, but with recent data showing wage growth is still weak these figures may come in below expectations. However, growth MoM is forecast to be 0.2% from -0.5%, and YoY at 3.9%, holding steady. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: These fell to 302K last week, but are forecast to rise to 310K this week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US manufacturing PMI (July, preliminary), 2.45pm: This is expected to rise to 57.5 from 57.3 last month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US new home sales (June), 3pm: These are expected to weaken, emphasizing the uncertain nature of the housing market in the US, to -4.8% MoM from 18.6% last month, with the annual rate dropping to 480K from 504K. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses


Japan CPI (June), 12.30am: Yet more CPI news, this time from Japan. Its reading is expected to drop to 3.5% from 3.7% YoY. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY

German IFO (July), 9am: All three IFO readings are forecast to decline, reflecting uncertainty about German economic growth, with business climate falling to 109.4 from 109.7, current assessment from 114.8 to 114.5, and expectations to 104.4 from 104.8. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

UK GDP (Q2), 9.30am: UK economic growth is forecast to hold steady at 0.8% QoQ and 3.1% YoY. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

US durable goods orders (June), 1.30pm: This volatile reading is expected to rebound in June, to 0.5% from -1% last month, while excluding transportation the figure is forecast to hit 0.5% from -0.1%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses


Company announcements


Babcock, Halliburton, Chipotle, Netflix, Texas Instruments


ARM, Croda, Royal Mail, QinetiQ, Beazley, Coca-Cola, Harley-Davidson, McDonald's, Lockheed Martin, Verizon, Apple, Microsoft


Facebook, Capita, Sage, BHP Billiton, Renishaw, GlaxoSmithKline, Provident Financial, Boeing, Dow Chemical, Freeport-McMoRan, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, Norfolk Southern, AT&T


Kingfisher, Unilever, Tate & Lyle, SABMiller, Hammerson, Britvic, Lonmin, easyJet, Rathbone Brothers, Reed Elsevier, Shaftesbury, Hershey, Ford, Southwest Airlines, Caterpillar, Amazon, Visa, American Airlines


Vodafone, African Barrick, Spectris, Cable & Wireless Communication, United Utilities, Pearson, BSkyB, AG Barr, Anglo American, Xerox, Lorillard, AbbVie

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