The week ahead: 30 June - 4 July

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

A jobs banner on the front of a building
Source: Bloomberg

US markets continue to look relatively robust, even as the FTSE 100 struggles below 6800 and the DAX seems to falter from its April trend. Overall indices are still broadly bullish, but low volumes leave them open to exaggerated moves, as witnessed on Thursday when comments from Federal Reserve policymaker James Bullard sent markets reeling within minutes of the US open, before seeing them recovering.

Mark Carney continues to make monetary policy less clear for the UK, but GBP/USD still seems likely to push beyond $1.70. Dollar weakness is also a continuing theme, while oil prices have dropped back slightly on diminished worries about Iraq.

Economic reports


Eurozone CPI (June), 10am: Price growth in the eurozone is forecast to accelerate to 0.6% year-on-year, with core price growth remaining constant at 0.7%. Market to watch: EUR/USD

Chicago PMI (June), 2.45pm: The index is expected to drop to 62 from 65.5 last month, indicating some further weakness in the US economy. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, dollar crosses

US pending home sales (May), 3pm: These should rise 1% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline may ease from the previous 9.4%. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, dollar crosses


Chinese manufacturing PMI (June, final), 2.45am: This final revision of the index is forecast to see the number moved higher to 51.1 from 50.8. Market to watch: China A50, AUD/USD, copper, USD/JPY, Nikkei 225

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (July), 5.30am: The Australian central bank is not expected to make any changes to monetary policy, with the rate holding at 2.5%. Market to watch: AUD/USD

German unemployment data (June), manufacturing PMI (June, final) 8.55am: Joblessness in Germany should remain at 6.7% for the month, and the PMI unrevised at 52.4. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX

Eurozone manufacturing PMI (June, final), 9am: No change is forecast to this reading, remaining at 51.9. Market to watch: Euro Stoxx 50, EUR/USD

UK manufacturing PMI (June), 9.30am: UK manufacturing is expected to weaken to 56.5 from 57 in May. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Eurozone unemployment rate (May), 10am: This is expected to remain steady at 11.7%. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

US manufacturing PMI (June, final), 2.45pm, ISM mfg index (June), 3pm: The ISM reading should increase to 55.5, from 55.4 in May, and little change is expected for the manufacturing PMI revision. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, dollar crosses


UK construction PMI (June), 9.30am: Construction forms only a small part of the UK economy, so this index's importance is limited. It is expected to weaken to 59.8 from 60. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

ADP employment data (June), 1.15pm: The payroll company ADP produces its own jobs report, and they expect 205K jobs to have been created in June, from 179K in May. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, dollar crosses


China non-manufacturing PMI (June): This reading was 55.5 in May, so further growth will reassure investors about the health of the economy. Market to watch: China A50, AUD/USD

Japan services & composite PMI (June), 2.35am: These indices will measure the growth of the service sector, with May's reading being 49.3 and 49.2 respectively. Market to watch: USD/JPY, Nikkei 225

France, Germany, eurozone composite & services PMIs (June, final), 8.50am - 9.00am: These final revisions are not forecast to show any changes. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

UK composite & services PMI (June), 9.30am: The services PMI is the most important of the UK readings, and is expected to weaken to 58 from 58.6. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Eurozone retail sales (May), 10am: Month-on-month growth is expected to drop back to 0.2% from 0.4%. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

ECB rate decision & press conference (July), 12.45pm & 1.30pm: Mario Draghi's latest meeting is not expected to be as exciting as the last, but there may be more commentary on if/when eurozone quantitative easing may be launched. Market to watch: Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

US non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate (June), weekly jobless claims, 1.30pm: Non-farms are a day earlier than usual due to the Independence Day holiday. The number of jobs created is expected to be 208K, from 217K in May while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.3%. Jobless claims dropped again last week, to 312K. Market to watch: all markets, but especially US indices & dollar crosses

US services & composite PMI (June, final), 2.45pm, ISM non-manufacturing index (June), 3pm: The ISM number is expected to drop back to 56 from 56.3, while the final readings on PMIs are not expected to see significant change. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, dollar crosses


Germany construction PMI (June), 8.30am: A relatively quiet end to the week, but this index will indicate the strength of the German construction industry. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD

Company announcements


Ocado, ST Modwen Properties


Carillion, Persimmon, Tullow Oil


Poundland, International Consolidated Airlines, Daejan Holdings



Airlines will report passenger statistics for June next week, while Poundland releases a fresh set of figures that will be carefully examined. Persimmon’s figures on Wednesday will be interesting given Mark Carney’s actions on the housing market this week.

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