A technical playbook on the ASX 200

It became clear last week that the index needed a break of 5300 to get the bulls more excited. However, despite hitting a high of 5380, there was no conviction to maintain the 5300 level and further consolidation has been seen.

Source: Bloomberg

The technical picture we are faced with is still constructive, but it is clear that strong horizontal resistance between 5400 and 5380 is a level traders are happy to fade the market into. A break above here would be very positive, but so far price action is indecisive and a new catalyst is needed.

Still, traders are happy to support into the March highs (dotted horizontal line) and specifically into 5215 (20-day moving average) to 5200. My stance based on the daily or weekly chart is neutral, turning bearish on a move through 5200 or bullish through 5400.

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