Greece deadlock continues

Greece remains front and centre as the deadlock around a deal hurts European equities and peripheral bond markets.

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There is clearly still a gulf between Greece and European leaders. Additionally, Germany is said to be preparing for Greece bankruptcy. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is increasingly taking a hard line approach and refusing to take difficult measures. This week will be pivotal as we approach the June 19 deadline. On the US side, it’s all about the FOMC meeting this week where revised projections and Janet Yellen’s post meeting press conference will be key. Should the Fed sound a bit more upbeat - recent Q1 improvement in data certainly points in that direction - then we could see the greenback extend its gains. As a result, EUR/USD is the currency pair to watch this week as it continues to defy gravity and could face some real tests this week with Greece in play. EUR/USD is just holding on to 1.1200 and the risk off sentiment prevailing in Europe could see this level broken in the near term. Interestingly though, there is a dominant downtrend that has been in place since July last year and has been capping prices through June. There is also a minor uptrend from April lows and these two trendlines are combining to cause a compression triangle. As a result, the price action is likely to break higher or lower at some stage.

 

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