FX snapshot: US Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, AUD/NZD

Dollar strength comes into question with the formation of a head and shoulders pattern emerging.

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar forms a short-term head and shoulders
Yesterday saw the strong move higher for the Dollar Index that we were looking for. Yet the signs are we could be set for a move lower given that price is currently breaking below the 96.40 neckline.

This provides a downside projection of 96.15, which seems close enough to be reached today. I would need to see a close below 96.40 for this bearish outlook to be activated.

GBP/USD breaking below key support level following selloff
GBP/USD has broken sharply lower yesterday, with price in the process of now breaking below the $1.533 support level which has been respected both recently and historically.

The likes of the MACD and stochastic point towards some form of bounce, yet an intraday close below $1.533 would provide us with expectations of a move back towards the $1.5191 and $1.517 region. 

AUD/USD on clear downward trajectory
AUD/USD has been moving on a very clear downward path over the past three trading days, following a resurgence that lasted almost two weeks. The 50-day simple moving average provided the necessary resistance to move the pair lower and since then we are seeing a very consistent move lower.

As such, I expect this to continue and am looking for the strength seen this morning to give way to further selling. I am bearish as long as price remains below the previous swing high, on this occasion, $0.7097.

AUD/NZD head and shoulders points to possible losses
AUD/NZD has seen price break out from the top of its symmetrical triangle formation in a bullish manner. However, price has since held up and formed a head and shoulders pattern, which would have bearish connotations.

Given the existence of the trendline support around NZ$1.1211, I would need to see a break and close below that level to gain confidence that we will reach the head and shoulders target of NZ$ 1.108.

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