FX levels to watch – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

Further gains for sterling look tricky, while a dovish set of RBA minutes has put pressure on the Aussie. 

Euro notes
Source: Bloomberg


Yesterday saw some recovery for cable from Friday’s sell-off, but overall bullish momentum was absent. Today’s CPI number could provide a catalyst, with a push through Monday’s high near $1.33 opening the way to a test of the Friday peak at $1.3450.

Further downside momentum would potentially find support at $1.3150 and then $1.31, while over the longer-term $1.2850 is the area to watch.


The relatively narrow trading range persists here, with an ongoing recovery from Friday’s low near $1.1020 stalling below $1.1080. The pair needs to break higher today to be in with a chance of testing the $1.1140-$1.1160 area where gains have stalled since late June.

Downside moves might find support around $1.10, the key low of the past three weeks, with a longer-term view suggesting a close below $1.10 would then see the pair test the March lows at $1.08. 


The market seems to have taken the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes in a fairly negative way, pushing the currency back to its lowest level against the US dollar since 8 July. The $0.7460 level is the next area to watch on the downside, with a move through here heading towards the 27 June low at $0.7330.

A move above $0.76 would be needed to reverse the bearish outlook here for AUD/USD.


The rally here shows no sign of stopping yet, although given the longer-term view it still looks sensible to sell into strength. So far we have yet to see a push through the highs of Friday and Monday, around ¥106.35, and even if this occurs we still have the downtrend line off the February highs, which would likely come into play around ¥107.

Downside support is possible around ¥104.50 and then ¥104, with a bigger move raising the prospect of a test of ¥102.50 and then ¥100.

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