FX levels to watch – GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

More gains have been seen for sterling this morning, while the Aussie is back to its high for the month.

Euro notes
Source: Bloomberg

GBP/USD

Further gains above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for cable reinforce the bullish outlook, although it needs now to push on above $1.48 in short order, since gains through May and June have stalled below here.

A push higher would then head towards the key $1.50 area, while any move back down will run into support at the 50-day SMA at $1.4453.

EUR/GBP

The nose-dive in this currency pair over the past few sessions has brought it back to the £0.7700 area. A break below this key support level will open the way to a test of the late May lows around £0.7600, which would also be near the rising 200-day SMA (£0.7567).

While still in a rising trend from the December 2015 lows, the pair is now in a downtrend from the April 2016 highs; the former enters the fray around £0.7670, so we could see a bounce materialise here.

AUD/USD

The RBA’s latest minutes did little to suggest that further easing will be on the way, with the result that the Aussie has pushed higher. It now finds itself back at $0.75, the peak from the first-half of June.

A break above here will head towards $0.77, the high from early May, and then on to the April peak at $0.78. A failure to rally from here would raise the prospect of a move back down towards $0.7277 and the 200-day SMA for AUD/USD.

USD/JPY

For yet another session IN_USDJPY has held above ¥104, which continues to hint at the possibility that a bottom may be in place. The next move would be up towards ¥106, with a longer-term move towards the 50-day SMA at ¥108.37 possible.

Any such rally would be a selling opportunity as part of the ongoing 2016 downtrend, barring a major tunaround in the fundamentals for the US dollar. 

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