FX levels to watch – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD looks back on course for further losses, while USD/JPY and GBP/USD continue to surge higher amid wider fundamental and political considerations.

Euro and dollar notes
Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD sell-off back on

Yesterday’s rally in EUR/USD appears to be behind us, with the pair selling off once more upon topping out yesterday morning. We are currently seeing a break below the morning low of $1.1053. With that in mind, we are back into the medium-term bearish picture, which is our preferred scenario.

As such, further downside seems likely, with the continued creation of lower highs and lows expected. As long as price does not post an hourly close above $1.1071, then further downside seems likely, with $1.1035 and $1.1015 the next support levels of note.

GBP/USD at key crossroads

IN_GBPUSD has seen a sharp appreciation over the past two days, feeding off the news Theresa May will now get a direct route to No.10, thus providing a greater degree of certainty for markets. The being said, we do expect some form of easing from the Bank of England tomorrow, which provides us with the potential for GBP weakness.

Given that we have not seen the pair break through the crucial $1.3349 swing high, there is a potential for the pair to start turning lower. Looking at the stochastic, the pair has clearly broken lower from a topping pattern, which could point towards impending weakness.

As such, it makes sense to await an hourly close above $1.3349 for a bullish scenario or below $1.3224 to take our lead. 

USD/JPY awaiting triangle breakout

IN_USDJPY is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, in a retracement of a very strong uptrend. This rally comes off the back of expectations of easing at the Bank of Japan. With that in mind, there is certainly a good chance we will see another leg higher, yet it makes sense to await the breakout from this pattern.

Thus an hourly close above 104.50 would look towards ¥105.00 and ¥105.55 resistance. Conversely an hourly close below ¥104.00 would look for a deeper pullback towards the ¥103.58 and ¥103.02 support levels.

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